Not Tuesday, though. “Suddenly,” Ric emailed me, “the container ships are not here. Almost all of them normally come from China, with outgoing full containers going to Hawai’i and Alaska. Right now, the largest container ship terminal in Seattle has no vessels docked at all, with the exception of one icebreaker preparing to head to Alaska. There is only one container ship unloading on the opposite side of the waterway.”
The recession will make its way east from Seattle and Los Angeles as trucks and freight trains carry less cargo overland. The port of New York-New Jersey, which is less reliant on China, is doing pretty well for now, which is good because transportation, warehousing, and storage account for more than 17 percent of all jobs in the Garden State. But Lisa Yakomin, head of the Association of Bi-State Motor Carriers, told the Bergen Record that “It’s a wait and see situation for the trucking community.”
If you think the sole benchmark for a healthy economy is a drop in imports, then I guess you can call a major-port ghost town good news, except about 200,000 jobs depend on the port not being a ghost town, and anyway a catastrophic falloff in imports was never going to make American factories bloom overnight, or possibly ever. According to the Business Roundtable, a lobby group for chief executives, one in five jobs in the United States is dependent on trade. The Retail Industry Leaders Association puts it more conservatively at one in ten jobs, but that’s still a lot.
Also, look at the difference with the last quarter of 2024, when GDP grew 2.4 percent under the president Trump sneeringly calls “Sleepy Joe Biden.” If 2.4 percent growth is sleeping and negative growth is waking, pass me another pillow. The Wall Street Journal’s Harriet Torry states bluntly: “the main driver of the first-quarter contraction was Trump’s trade war.” I agree. When the numbers make this recession official, I fully expect Trump to call this the China Recession. But China isn’t our president. It will be the Trump Recession. Let’s hope he doesn’t turn it into a Trump Depression.
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