The 2025 NFL Draft is over with, and that means it’s time for Mel Kiper Jr. to start researching which future Day 3 pick he’ll stake his entire career on for next year.
We’re assuming Kiper returns as one of the lead analysts for ESPN’s draft coverage in 2026, which maybe isn’t a fair assumption. Kiper spent the entire weekend droning on about former Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, comparing his fall from a speculative first-round pick into the fifth round to guys like Dan Marino and Tom Brady, and a great number of people were put off by the whole ordeal.
Throughout ESPN’s draft coverage, a graphic was regularly displayed showing other former quarterbacks who were high on Kiper’s pre-draft big board but eventually much lower on actual NFL scouting department big boards. While Kiper rattled off some of the most famous names to ever play the position, viewers saw names like Chad Pennington, Brady Quinn, and Jimmy Clausen — players Kiper stumped for who went lower than he expected and went on to have unremarkable professional careers.
Maybe Sanders outperforms his draft selection. The Cleveland Browns, who took him 2 rounds after taking a different quarterback, claim to believe he will. Or maybe the rest of the NFL is right, and Sanders’ collection of good-not-great traits makes for an unremarkable career.
The point here is not that Sanders should or should not have been a Day 1 (or even Day 2) selection. Kiper spent a year prepping for the draft and completely missed on Sanders.
But here’s the thing: so did so many other people. Sanders was either the outright favorite to go No. 1 or the co-favorite when the markets opened last April. At DraftKings, he was +300 to be the No. 1 pick. Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers were +500. Cam Ward, who actually did go No. 1 overall, was +1700 when sportsbooks released their opening odds.
For long stretches of the 2024 season, Sanders was talked about as a first-round pick. Up until the pre-draft process began and Sanders reportedly put teams off during interviews, he was viewed as a first-round pick.
Keep all that in mind when it comes to the 2026 NFL Draft betting market, because the presumptive favorite to go No. 1 overall has made 2 career starts.
It’s Arch Manning, the likely starting quarterback for the Texas Longhorns in 2025. At DraftKings, Manning is +200 to be the first player off the board next season.
Beyond Manning, quarterbacks make up the 4 most likely players to be picked No. 1. DraftKings has Penn State’s Drew Allar priced at +225, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier priced at +450, and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik priced at +1800.
Overall, 8 of the top 11 players on the board are quarterbacks. The rest include South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (+3000), Miami’s Carson Beck (+3000), USC’s Jayden Maiava (+3500), and Oregon’s Dante Moore (+3500).
With Ward’s selection by the Tennessee Titans, a quarterback has now been the No. 1 overall pick in 3 consecutive draft cycles and in 9 of the last 12 years. Since the turn of the century, 19 of the 26 players who have gone first overall played the quarterback position.
So, for bettors who want to lay down a wager on the opening odds for next year’s top pick, do you back a quarterback? And, if so, is Manning the player to get behind?
2026 NFL Draft odds to be the No. 1 overall pick
PlayerPos.OddsArch Manning, TexasQB+200Drew Allar, Penn StateQB+225Garrett Nussmeier, LSUQB+450Cade Klubnik, ClemsonQB+1800TJ Parker, ClemsonEdge+2500Keldric Faulk, AuburnEdge+2500Caleb Downs, Ohio StateS+2500LaNorris Sellers, South CarolinaQB+3000Carson Beck, MiamiQB+3000Jayden Maiava, USCQB+3500Dante Moore, OregonQB+3500Spencer Fano, UtahOT+4000Miller Moss, LouisvilleQB+4000Harold Perkins Jr., LSULB+4000Odds via DraftKings
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKNew Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly! DraftKings States: AZ, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV, WY
GET THE APPSIGNUP PROMOBET $5GET $200BET NOW!Here’s how I’d rank the options given their current prices in the market. For the purposes of this exercise, I’m taking the inverse order of DraftKings’ Super Bowl odds for next season, which suggests the Cleveland Browns, the New York Jets, and the New Orleans Saints will be fighting for the No. 1 pick.
5. Kadyn Proctor, Alabama offensive tackle (+5000)
If we’re assuming that either the Browns, Saints, or Jets are securing the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft, that assumption means there is a solid chance a quarterback isn’t even targeted in this spot. The Saints spent a second-round pick on a quarterback this past weekend and have a significant investment made in starting quarterback Derek Carr, who won’t come off the books until after the 2026 season and possesses a no-trade clause. And we all know what the Browns just did, drafting 2 quarterbacks in the third and fifth rounds. That leaves the Jets, who used their first-round pick on a tackle and signed quarterback Justin Fields in free agency.
If either the Saints or the Browns are picking first, there could be a robust trade market for the pick. However, it’s also entirely possible that either team is looking to take a cornerstone tackle who can protect their young quarterback. Proctor would fit that bill.
(I would also include Utah’s Spencer Fano, +4000, in this discussion.)
Alabama might be much better on offense in 2025 under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. One thing is certain: whoever wins the starting quarterback job will have some security on his blindside. Proctor showed great improvement last season. After giving up 36 quarterback pressures as a freshman, Proctor was on the hook for just 14 pressures allowed as a sophomore. He had a masterful performance against Georgia, with a 91.4 pass protection grade from PFF. He gave up just 3 sacks all year.
The 6-7, 369-pound Proctor is a mountain of a man who will be among the most experienced tackles in his class. He’ll have tape against the best defensive lines in college football. A good season could put him firmly in play for the No. 1 pick if that pick belongs to a team that doesn’t necessarily need a quarterback.
An offensive lineman hasn’t been taken with the first overall pick since 2013. That year, tackles were the top 2 selections.
It’s also worth noting here that Cleveland has its own first-round pick next season and the first it acquired from Jacksonville in a trade last Thursday. Cleveland also has an extra seventh-round pick as well as all of its 2027 picks, so the Browns theoretically have the capital to take the best non-QB on their board and still get a quarterback in the first round if they land the top pick.
4. TJ Parker, Clemson edge defender (+2500)
I expect Parker will be one of the first names on every major 2026 NFL Draft big board. He’s one of the best players in the country, and he plays the defensive position pro clubs have proven time and time again to value above all others in the draft.
Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is probably going to be No. 1 on plenty of big boards, and rightfully so. But you’d have to go all the way back to 1956 to find the last time a defensive back went first overall.
Remember the note about quarterbacks? Nineteen of the last 26 No. 1 picks have been quarterbacks. Five of the 7 non-quarterbacks were pass-rushing edge players. And Parker is the best in his class at that position.
He’s freakishly powerful with a sturdy frame. He set a program record last fall with 6 forced fumbles and enters his junior season with 32 career tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks, and 3 pass breakups in 27 career games.
Auburn edge Keldric Faulk (+2500) is also worth a look because of his massive 6-6, 270-pound frame. He doesn’t have the same level of production as Parker, but the upside is massive and a big season will rocket him up draft boards. Faulk could test exceptionally well at the Combine.
3. Arch Manning, Texas quarterback (+200)
If Manning is just good in 2025, every team will want to get their hands on him. Manning comes from a legendary quarterback family and there should be zero concerns about his mental makeup. A former blue-chip recruit, Manning has eschewed the backup drama that swirls around other big-name prospects to this point in his career, making a single commitment and showing patience to see that commitment through.
Additionally, if the Saints land the top pick, there will be a massive segment of the fanbase that will want to see the organization draft another Manning. Archie Manning was the second overall pick in the 1971 NFL Draft and was a 2-time Pro Bowler for the Saints, starting 129 games in 11 years with the franchise.
The word “if” is doing a ton of heavy lifting this offseason, though, as it relates to the youngest Manning. He’s the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Now he’s the betting favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. A reminder here that he has started 2 games in his college career.
Manning started against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State last year, stepping in for Ewers while he nursed an oblique injury. According to Game on Paper, ULM ranked 80th nationally in defensive EPA per play. Mississippi State ranked 127th.
Texas opens the 2025 season against Ohio State on the road. The Longhorns will also play Florida and Georgia on the road. If they return to the College Football Playoff, every eye in the NFL will be on Manning.
He could be great. He could also be merely good in his first season as a full-time starter. Given the potential and the name, I understand installing Manning as the favorite this early, but I think there are better options available at this time. You also have to factor in the possibility that Manning wants to spend more than 1 season starting in college.
2. Drew Allar, Penn State quarterback (+225)
I do not personally believe Allar will be a better quarterback than Manning long term, but I cannot deny that NFL teams seem to be enamored with quarterbacks who have Allar’s exact skillset. He has enough arm talent to impress scouts and he has the size teams look for. The 6-5 Allar also has enough functional mobility for teams to feel comfortable with.
Allar was a high-end recruit because he has the prototype build of an NFL passer. While he has yet to win a Big Ten title or national championship, Allar did lead Penn State to the College Football Playoff semifinals last season, and his receivers’ no-show in that game took a fair bit of criticism off his shoulders.
Year 2 to Year 3 saw Allar make notable improvements in completion rate (59.9% to 66.5%) and yards per pass (6.8 to 8.4). He took well to first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and another season of improvement will put him squarely in the mix to be the first quarterback taken.
He needs to show he can be effective when he goes off-script. Allar’s mechanics fall by the wayside a bit when he’s under pressure, he’ll create problems for himself while trying to extend dead plays, and he’ll occasionally predetermine his throws. NFL teams won’t want to see any of that from a third-year starter.
All that being said, Allar feels like a guy with a top-10 floor next year unless something goes horribly wrong during the 2025 season.
1. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU quarterback (+450)
With Nussmeier’s father currently coordinating the Saints’ offense in New Orleans, there will be constant ties between the 2 parties. Nussmeier is a bit shorter at 6-2, but he was impressive in his debut season starting for the Tigers last fall.
Going into the 2024 season, Nussmeier’s attributes weren’t really the concern. It was his experience. He showed the makings of a high-upside field general early on. The arm talent is there. And while Nussmeier’s athleticism won’t wow anyone, he did show an ability to evade. According to PFF, Nussmeier’s pressure-to-sack rate last season was among the nation’s best.
“I do think he’s the most talented,” an NFL scout told The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman last November. “If I were a GM, I would pick him over all these guys [in the 2025 NFL Draft]. He just needs to play a lot more. I think he’s seeing things that he’s never seen before. He’s got 11 starts and it’s starting to show. (Texas A&M coach Mike) Elko did some stuff to him, and he looks confused.”
Well, Nussmeier came back for the 2025 season, one where LSU has real title aspirations. I think this is where his father’s connections will actually make a difference. Nussmeier has a unique insight into what he needs to show, where he needs to improve, and what teams want to see. Even if that connection doesn’t lead to the Saints drafting him, it’ll help him prepare for whichever team does.
Most of the areas that need refining are all related to exposure. The more he plays, the better you’d expect him to be at taking what’s available and beating disguised coverages.
I think Nussmeier is due for a big season in Baton Rouge.
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Way-too-early 2026 NFL Draft odds: Arch Manning or the field for No. 1 overall? Saturday Down South.
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