Barcelona are predicted to defeat Inter in this mouth-watering UEFA Champions League semi-final first-leg contest. We look ahead to Wednesday’s game in Catalonia with our Barcelona vs Inter prediction and preview.
Barcelona vs Inter Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer rates Barcelona as favourites to defeat Inter in the first leg of this tie, with a 55.2% win probability. Barcelona are unbeaten in their six home games against Inter in the Champions League. Their five home wins against Inter are their joint-most against an opponent in UEFA Champions League/European Cup history (also five v AC Milan). Only Erling Haaland (36) and Luis Suárez (28) have recorded more goal involvements in their first 25 Champions League games than Raphinha (26).As we gear up for the Champions League semi-finals, just two of the four clubs involved have title-winning pedigree on this stage.
Barcelona have been champions of Europe on five occasions but are yet to reach those heights in the post-Lionel Messi era, while Inter have ruled the continent three times, most recently under José Mourinho in 2009-10.
And after each saw off German opposition in the quarter-finals, Barcelona routing Borussia Dortmund and Inter coming through two tense meetings with Bayern Munich, they will face off for a spot in this season’s showpiece.
Barcelona have had two tastes of silverware already this term, winning the Supercopa de España and the Copa del Rey, and a clean sweep is now on their agenda.
Jules Koundé was the extra-time hero as Hansi Flick’s side overcame their bitter rivals Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final on Saturday, and with a four-point lead over Los Blancos at the top of La Liga, this is shaping up to be a very memorable season for the Blaugrana.
Since the turn of the year, Barça have only lost once in 28 games (22 wins, five draws excluding extra-time), with that defeat coming in the second leg of their quarter-final against Dortmund, as they took their foot off the gas after a 4-0 first-leg win.
Overall, they’ve scored 83 goals from 67.0 expected goals (xG) since the start of 2025 – no side in the top five European leagues has scored as many at the time of writing.
Their hopes of Champions League glory appeared to have taken a huge blow when Robert Lewandowski, who has 11 goals in the competition this campaign, suffered a hamstring injury that will cause him to miss both matches against Inter.
But Ferran Torres deputised capably against Madrid on Saturday, scoring a vital equaliser to force extra-time. He is likely to be flanked by Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, two of the Champions League’s star performers in 2024-25.
Yamal and Raphinha have combined for more goals than any other duo in the Champions League this term (five – two Yamal assists, three Raphinha assists), also creating the most chances for one another of any teammate pairing (16 – eight each).
Raphinha’s total of 51 goal involvements in all competitions this season (30 goals, 21 assists) is only bettered by Mohamed Salah of Liverpool (33 goals, 23 assists) across Europe’s big five leagues, while Yamal has 34 goal involvements (14 goals, 20 assists).
If any team is equipped to cope with Lewandowski’s absence, it’s Barça, who have averaged 3.1 goals per game in the Champions League under Flick.
The only club-manager duo with a better figure in the competition’s history? That would be Flick’s Bayern (3.2), who won the trophy as part of their 2019-20 treble.
However, Flick’s star-studded attack will come up against an Inter team that has already kept eight clean sheets in the Champions League this season.
Another would see them equal the record for most shutouts by an Italian team in a single edition, held jointly by Milan in 2004-05 and Juventus in 2016-17.
Simone Inzaghi has forged a reputation as a knockout specialist since arriving at Inter in 2021, winning the Coppa Italia twice, the Supercoppa Italiana on three occasions, and leading them to the 2023 Champions League final.
He will oversee his 50th Champions League match here, becoming the seventh Italian coach to reach this milestone; the most for any nation (currently level with Spain). His 26 wins are already the most by an Italian manager through their first 50 Champions League matches (one ahead of Marcello Lippi’s 25).
Inzaghi has shown his game-management skills on the big stage once again this term. Inter have only spent 10 minutes and 54 seconds in a losing position in the Champions League in 2024-25, the shortest total time of any team.
They did fall behind in the second leg of their quarter-final tie versus Bayern, but within nine minutes, goals from Lautaro Martínez and Benjamin Pavard had them 2-1 up on the night and 4-2 up on aggregate.
They showcased an ability to bend but not break – reminiscent of Mourinho’s class of 2009-10 – in that tie. Inter faced 40 shots across their two meetings with Bayern, but the average xG value of each attempt was just 0.09.
But Inter are not all about defensive fortitude, with Nicolò Barella capable of springing devastating counter-attacks from midfield. He has averaged 7.1 progressive passes per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season, the most of any player to play at least 500 minutes in the competition.
Of all Barella’s passes, 12% have been progressive (a completed pass in the attacking two-thirds of the pitch that moves the ball at least 25% closer to the goal), the highest proportion of any central midfielder in this edition.
The Nerazzurri have wobbled domestically in recent weeks, going out of the Coppa Italia to Milan and slipping three points behind Napoli in the race for the Scudetto. But if anyone is capable of frustrating Barça, it may just be the Nerazzurri.
Barcelona vs Inter Head-to-Head
The one previous European Cup/Champions League knockout-stage tie between these two giants was a memorable one, coming at the same stage of the 2009-10 edition.
On that occasion, Mourinho’s Inter eliminated Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona – then the reigning champions – 3-2 on aggregate, winning 3-1 at San Siro and then limiting the Blaugrana to a 1-0 victory at Camp Nou.
While Inter edged the teams’ biggest meeting, they have faced each other on 16 previous occasions in Europe overall, with Barça winning eight of those games (five draws, three losses).
The Nerazzurri are unbeaten in their last two against the Catalan giants, though, playing out a 3-3 draw at San Siro and winning 1-0 on their travels in the 2022-23 Champions League group stage. Barça fell at the first hurdle that campaign, while Inter reached the final.
However, Barcelona are unbeaten in their six home games against Inter in the Champions League (five wins, one draw).
Those five home victories are their joint-most against any opponent in the Champions League/European Cup, also beating AC Milan five times, while they have only hosted Chelsea more often in the competition without losing (seven times).
Barcelona vs Inter Prediction
Ahead of the semi-finals getting under way on Tuesday, the Opta supercomputer made Barça second favourites to lift the famous old trophy.
They were assigned a 27% chance of going all the way, lower than Arsenal’s 31% probability but higher than the respective hopes of Paris Saint-Germain (22%) and Inter (19%).
As far as this tie is concerned, the Blaugrana are given a 58% chance of progressing to Inter’s 42%, with their win probability for the first leg standing at 55.2%.
The Nerazzurri are only given a 22.5% chance of building a first-leg lead on their travels, as they did against Bayern in the quarters, though they would surely take a draw – deemed a 22.3% chance.
Barcelona vs Inter Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday in Spain, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Barcelona vs Inter Prediction Opta Analyst.
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