Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli
The Islamic State group has not hidden its hostility towards the new Syrian administration since the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus on December 8, 2024. It considers that the Syrian opposition factions that overthrew the regime are “Turkish pawns” fighting against “Iranian pawns”.
The group has vowed to continue fighting the Syrian authorities, amid reports of an increase in its activity in eastern Syria, coinciding with security operations carried out by the United States’ allies in the region to prevent the Islamic State from taking advantage of the situation.
On April 9, the American newspaper “The New York Times” reported that the group has shown renewed activity in Syria, restored its strength, attracted new fighters, and increased the number of its attacks, according to United Nations and US officials, which raises the risk of instability in Syria.
The newspaper noted that although the Islamic State is far from the strength it had a decade ago, when it controlled large areas of Syria and Iraq, experts warn that it could find a way to free thousands of its experienced fighters held in the jails of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Amid American demands and Turkish pressure to combat the Islamic State in Syria, the Syrian administration has engaged in a joint operations room with Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey, aiming to counter the group, without showing any declared progress in this file, while the group attempted to carry out attacks deep within Syria following the regime’s fall.
Counter-moves against the Islamic State
Simultaneously with the military moves that led to the fall of the regime, the activities of the Islamic State were among the priorities of the US administration leading the International Coalition. Following Assad’s fall, airstrikes were repeatedly launched targeting sites linked to the group that was trying to exploit the chaos in Syria.
US’ allies moved in multiple directions to limit the Islamic State’s activities. The SDF announced its move towards the city of Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria to prevent the group from controlling new territories, while the Free Syrian Army moved to control eastern Homs countryside for the same purpose, and it remains deployed in these areas.
Over the past years, the Islamic State has been active in the Syrian Badia bordering Iraq, between the provinces of Homs and Deir Ezzor.
In a previous statement to Enab Baladi, the leader of the Free Syrian Army, Salem Turki al-Antari, said that the Free Army moved from the al-Tanf base coinciding with the advance of opposition factions towards Damascus, from the perspective of protecting civilians and averting the threat of the Islamic State and cutting its movement routes.
He added that the Islamic State’s groups aimed to take advantage of the withdrawal of the ousted regime’s forces from the central region and moved to seize weapons and equipment that the ousted regime, its allied militias, and Russian forces had left behind, which prompted the Free Syrian Army to take action to prevent that.
Al-Antari stated, “As long as we have the mission to combat the Islamic State, our weapon exists to fight it and to protect civilians,” noting that his faction and its weaponry stand alongside anyone who wishes to fight the Islamic State and protect Syria from its danger, which is what his faction focuses on today, as he expressed.
What are the government’s options amid developments?
On January 11, the public intelligence agency in the new Syrian administration announced foiling an attempt to detonate an explosive device inside the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab in the Syrian capital, Damascus, which was the first targeting attempt that bore the fingerprints of the Islamic State group since the regime’s fall.
The Syrian official news agency (SANA) reported at the time, citing an unnamed source from the public intelligence agency, that the authorities succeeded in thwarting an attempt to detonate inside the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab.
The source accused the Islamic State of planning the bombing, according to SANA.
After the foiling of this attempt, no other attempts by the group to carry out targeting operations in Syria appeared, but the report discussed by The New York Times about the increased activity of the group in Syria stated that senior US intelligence officials presented their annual assessment of global threats to Congress last March, concluding that the Islamic State would attempt to exploit the fall of the Assad regime to free prisoners and revive its capability to plan and execute attacks.
How the fall of the regime affected the Islamic State’s activity
With the rapid advance of Syrian opposition factions under the banner of the “Deterrence of Aggression” battle at the end of last year, the Assad regime focused its forces in urban centers, withdrawing them from military points located in rural areas, especially those where the Islamic State was active in eastern Syria.
The repeated withdrawals of the regime’s forces created a vacuum that the Islamic State attempted to exploit, as the regime left behind weapons and military equipment, withdrawing its forces towards central Syria.
The researcher specializing in jihadist groups, Abdul Rahman al-Haj, believes that the fall of the regime has led to a radical change regarding the Islamic State’s activity on Syrian territory.
He stated to Enab Baladi that the fall of the regime resulted in a change in the nature of the group’s operations, which can be observed through the type and goals of the operations, as it has recently been noted that the Islamic State aims to destabilize the ruling authority and incite sectarian strife by attempting to detonate the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab in Damascus.
Additionally, most of the group’s operations still target prisoner detention sites in the areas controlled by the SDF, as well as checkpoints that are mostly empty.
At the same time, the researcher believes that the effects of the Islamic State’s operations remain limited, and that the Coalition’s warplanes have increased their operations to confront this increase after Israel destroyed all Syrian military aircraft.
Al-Haj added that international parties are still seeking to weaken the central authority and prevent its stability, and that direct or indirect support from these parties could help the Islamic State increase its attacks and reorganize its ranks.
He dismissed the possibility of the Islamic State regaining its strength as it did before, as the political environment has changed, and the Sunni grievance that it feeds on is no longer present in Syria, which will prevent it from finding a social base on which it can expand.
“Exceptional experience”
On February 10, a UN official warned about the Islamic State group’s capability to continue its activities and adapt its methods of operation, despite the vigorous counter-terrorism efforts being made by member states and international and regional partners.
The UN official, Vladimir Voronkov, stated that the volatile situation in Syria “raises significant concerns” regarding the potential for advanced weapon stockpiles to fall into the hands of “terrorists”.
He added that the Syrian Badia remains used as a center for the operational planning of the Islamic State, and it is a vital area for its activities.
He pointed out that instability in Syria affects the camps and detention centers and other facilities in the northeastern part of the country, adding that 42,500 individuals, some of whom are alleged to have ties to the Islamic State group, remain detained, including 17,700 Iraqi nationals and 16,200 Syrian nationals, in addition to 8,600 nationals from other countries.
Researcher Abdul Rahman al-Haj stated during his talk to Enab Baladi that despite the increased frequency of the Islamic State’s operations, the chances of its survival and spread are diminishing, and it can be understood from the increased frequency of attacks and attempts to carry out externally-oriented operations, like the bombing of the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab, that it also aims to attract new fighters and recruit them into the group while seizing the present opportunity.
The researcher views the new Syrian administration as possessing “exceptional experience” in combating the Islamic State group, given the historical links of al-Nusra Front (the nucleus of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that led the operations to overthrow Bashar al-Assad) with the Islamic State, and its knowledge of recruitment and funding methods and its ability to gain access.
He also stated that the experience of combating the Islamic State that the new administration gained during its presence in Idlib and Daraa will provide the central government with a “great” ability to combat the group and prevent its survival.
He observed that the Islamic State still feeds on the existence of the SDF and the grievances it has created in the eastern Euphrates region, relying mainly on non-Syrian fighters.
Al-Haj also noted that the withdrawal of the United States could enhance the Islamic State’s chances of survival for a longer period, but it would not be the reason for its resurgence in Syria or its control over territories that would allow it to establish authority and an executive body.
He added that the Turkish presence in the Syrian Badia could contribute to preventing the Islamic State from spreading and compensating for the American void, but the eradication of the group can only succeed with the complete withdrawal of the SDF from areas under its control east of the Euphrates River, as it represents a grievance that provides the Islamic State group with the necessary propaganda for recruitment, according to al-Haj.
What are Syrian government’s options in response to Islamic State movements? Enab Baladi.
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