The Denver Nuggets are two games into their series with the Los Angeles Clippers. Unsurprisingly, the teams split the first two matchups and are about to head to LA for a pivotal Game 3.
Here are some trends I’ve seen in the first two games:
This has been a defensive series, and that favors the Clippers long term
In the regular season, the Nuggets put together a 118.9 Offensive Rating and 115.1 Defensive Rating. They were an offensive-minded team, built on how efficiently they scored at all three levels, prioritizing paint touches, cuts, and generating open threes off of freedom of movement.
So far this season, the Nuggets have an Offensive and Defensive Rating of 110.3. Unsurprisingly, the Nuggets have improved on the defensive end. Also unsurprising (at least to me) is the struggles their lack of spacing have created when trying to score. Denver’s True Shooting percentage ranks 12th out of 16 playoff teams so far, a stat in which they ranked second in the NBA behind only the Cleveland Cavaliers during the regular season.
Give the Clippers credit. They’ve done what they wanted to do in bothered Nikola Jokic as much as he can realistically be bothered. Russell Westbrook has hit some important threes as a spacer, and both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon have had their moments creating offense around Jokic. Michael Porter Jr. had a small bounce back in Game 2 as well, but it coincided with 20 Nuggets turnovers on the night, something the Clippers have emphasized heavily.
The Nuggets are not a pull-up three-point shooting team. Among all NBA teams, the Nuggets ranked 29th in the NBA averaging 7.9 pull-up threes per game. For comparison, the Oklahoma City Thunder average 10.4, the Cleveland Cavaliers average 13.8, and the Boston Celtics average 16.8 per game. It’s a critical way for many teams to pull defenses away from the paint vertically, and unless Jamal Murray suddenly turns into Anthony Edwards and Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell in terms of pull-up three-point shooting volume, the Nuggets simply don’t have more than one guy who’s going to take and make those shots at a high enough level to pull the Clippers away from the paint. And that guy (Murray) is often being guarded by Kris Dunn for long stretches, who has proven to be one of the best defensive players in the sport this year.
Can the Nuggets win more defensive games if they can’t consistently create offense against an elite defense like LA’s? Time will tell. Finding more opportunities to put up points in bunches should favor Denver though. Their volume of three-pointers and shots at the rim hasn’t been high, but if Denver could find multiple 30-point quarters or at least reduce the number of sub 25-point quarters, that would go a long way.
The Non-Murray minutes are more problematic than Non-Jokic minutes
We’ve been talking about the Nikola Jokic minutes and Non-Nikola Jokic minutes for a long time. It stands to reason that similar issues would hold firm in the playoffs, and they mostly have. The Nuggets are +10 with Nikola Jokic on the floor and -11 with Nikola Jokic off the floor in just 12 minutes during this series. The Nuggets need to be better in those moments and get Jokic some longer rests.
Ditto for Murray though. He’s going through a lot of the same things, and the Nuggets have faltered in the Non-Murray minutes even worse than when Jokic isn’t out there. In 11 minutes of time that Murray hasn’t played, the Nuggets are -18 across the first two games. As a team, the Nuggets are shooting 5-of-19 from the field and 0-of-6 from three with just three assists compared to five turnovers. They have a 56.5 Offensive Rating when Murray sits. That is ludicrous.
In those 11 minutes, Russell Westbrook has played all of them and has shot 0-of-8 from the field. He has a 40% usage in those minutes which is simply too imbalanced. Basically every player has committed at least one turnover. One of the common lineups the Nuggets have gone to is Westbrook plus the other four starters. That lineup is -8 in three minutes, way too small of a sample size to make sweeping conclusions, but it might not be the right mix when Murray isn’t out there during this series.
The Nuggets must continue to prioritize Jokic in those minutes and finding any operating room around him that they can. Jalen Pickett has played reasonably well so far next to Jokic. It might not be a bad idea to experiment with Julian Strawther in the non-Murray minutes as a player that the opposition will have to honor as a spacer. If not spacing, then Denver must go full defense around Jokic and say some sort of prayer.
Kawhi Leonard has been unbothered by smaller players
Kawhi Leonard has certainly been on a role since these playoffs began, averaging over 30 points per game and shooting over 70% from the field in the process. He looks a lot like his old self, and that should frighten the Nuggets a bit given Kawhi’s history of dominant scoring performances in playoff games.
Kawhi’s made 24 total shots in two games. Here’s how those buckets Leonard has scored against opposing Nuggets players have been distributed:
Jamal Murray – 7 Transition (not really one player’s fault) – 6 Aaron Gordon – 4 Russell Westbrook – 2 Peyton Watson – 2 Nikola Jokic- 1 Christian Braun – 1 Everyone at once – 1Gordon is the primary defender, but Kawhi has only made four of his 24 shots against Gordon in a halfcourt setting. Murray is often the target. The Nuggets have conceded the switch frequently, and while Murray’s post defense has been a strength of his at times, it appears Leonard isn’t really being impacted by Murray. He hasn’t attacked Braun or Porter to the same degree, and perhaps there’s an advantage for the Nuggets to try and find somewhere.
Murray’s offense (and his defense when locked in against other perimeter players) is good enough that he has to stay on the floor (see the plus-minus section above). The Nuggets have to be better about switching Murray onto Leonard though. If it happens, they must mix in some double teams to try and force him to give up the possession.
The Clippers have their highest individual offensive rating when Leonard is on the floor at 117.9. When he’s off the floor, the Clippers have a poor 82.2 offensive rating. If the Nuggets can knock down that number with Leonard on the floor, they’re in a good place in this series. Sometimes though, against a scorer like Leonard, it can feel inevitable when he scores. Denver must ensure that there is a path to success, even if it means changing the starting lineup and inserting someone like Peyton Watson to provide an extra layer of defensive coverage.
Three Trends to Watch in Nuggets-Clippers series so far Mile High Sports.
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