Now, she's also fretting over the tariffs unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which could slash demand for Thai rice in its most valuable foreign market and create turmoil in an export industry worth billions of dollars.
Thailand is among Southeast Asian nations hardest hit by Trump's proposed measures, facing a 36% tariff on goods unless ongoing negotiations are successful before the U.S president's moratorium on the tariffs ends in July.
Last year, Thailand shipped 849,000 metric tones of rice to the United States, mainly of its most expensive fragrant jasmine variety, worth 28.03 billion baht ($735 million), according to the association.
Potential U.S. tariffs would stall exports and hand the advantage to Thailand's main regional competitors, like Vietnam, where prices are significantly lower, said Chookiat, whose association is targeting exports of 7.5 million tons this year.
Rice from Vietnam is cheaper because production costs are lower, farmers grow different varieties of the crop and bring in multiple harvests.
Farmers in Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, have already been on edge because of a 30% drop in domestic prices after India resumed exports in September. The country accounted for 40% of world rice exports in 2022 before the ban was introduced.
“Our production costs are high, while our yield is low,“ said Somporn Isvilanonda, an independent agricultural economist. “If we dump prices, farmers won’t survive.”
Rice shipments, however, are already sliding. Overall exports fell 30% in the first quarter as countries delayed buying decisions and India's return boosted supply, according to the exporters association, forecasting a similar decline over the next three months.
A flood of cheap imported corn could further depress prices of broken rice and rice bran, which are extracted during rice milling and used in animal feed, said Banjong Tangchitwattanakul, President of the Rice Millers Association.
The government has pledged that any concession it makes in negotiations with the United States will not undermine domestic industries.
“My children have been following the news,“ she said, “They were telling me that ‘we won’t be able to survive, mum, if things go ahead like this.’”
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