The 2026 election cycle is already heating up — and the money is rolling in.
Congressional candidates across Orange County collectively raised millions of dollars in the first quarter of 2025, with early totals suggesting several races are poised to become top battlegrounds.
The early money matters. With Republicans holding a razor-thin majority in the House, both parties are gearing up for a high-stakes midterm.
And Orange County, home to several competitive districts and one of the country’s largest suburban electorates, is once again shaping up to be a key battleground.
Take California’s 40th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Young Kim is seeking reelection. The Anaheim Hills Republican pulled in just around $1.3 million from January through March, one of the largest hauls in the country for a vulnerable Republican, according to Federal Election Commission data.
It’s the first time Kim has broken $1 million in the first quarter of any year, more than twice what she brought in during the same period in 2021, another off-year.
“The amount of money raised this early in the 40th, on both sides, is a clear indication that the parties think this is going to be a big contest,” said Matt Jarvis, who teaches campaigns and elections at Cal State Fullerton.
Esther Kim Varet, a Democrat and political newcomer who is in the race for the 40th District, reported raising just over $1 million in the first quarter. But roughly 40%, or $382,000, comes from personal loans and contributions. The rest of her total is in line with the early totals of freshmen Democrats in Orange County, Rep. Dave Min in California’s 47th District and Derek Tran in California’s 45th District.
“That’s substantial money to raise this early,” Jarvis said.
Kim Varet, an art dealer from Los Angeles, drew substantial in-state support, reporting more than $300,000 raised from California donors.
Another Democratic candidate in the 40th District race, Christina Gagnier, raised more than $305,000 in the first quarter, including $26,003 in personal contributions. Joe Kerr, who lost to Kim in 2024, reported raising about $77,000, and Nina Linh, another Democrat, reported no fundraising.
Fundraising is often seen as an early measure of candidate viability, signaling to donors, national parties and potential challengers that a campaign is gaining traction. But not all money means momentum — some of the funds trickling into campaign accounts are carryovers from the last cycle.
For example, Kim reported moving about $40,000 that was originally earmarked for last year’s general election into her current campaign account. Min, who ran a tight race in 2024, also reallocated around $17,000 he had raised for a potential recount last year to help fund his 2026 campaign.
But candidates are also trying to demonstrate strength early.
In Kim’s case, the early cash also reflects her political reality. Kim is also the only Republican out of the six members who represent communities in Orange County in Congress, which raises the stakes even higher for the GOP. The national Democratic Party is already eyeing the seat as a possible pickup opportunity.
The district, which spans Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, has been labeled a “district in play” by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for 2026. The Cook Political Report rated the seat as “likely Republican” last year, and it has changed its rating to “lean Republican” for 2026, indicating the race is more competitive but still favors the GOP.
As of Feb. 10, registered Republicans made up 38.48% of voters in the district, while Democrats accounted for 33.09% and voters with no party preference made up 22.14%, according to California’s secretary of state. Kim bested Kerr in November with 55.3% of the vote.
“I’m no stranger to tough races — every dollar counts. It means the world to me that our message continues to gain momentum,” Kim said in a statement. “We are operating full steam ahead and will continue to be everywhere in CA-40 talking directly with voters through next November.”
Sign up for Down Ballot, our Southern California politics email newsletter. Subscribe here.For freshmen members like Min and Tran, the latter of whom flipped a seat in 2024, raising money early is essential.
In California’s 47th District, Min reported raising about $753,000, while Tran in the 45th District raised close to $460,000. Min was among the top four Democratic fundraisers in competitive House races nationally. Neither candidate reported making any personal loans or contributions to their campaigns.
“The OC numbers are a bit higher than you might normally expect, but remember that Tran and Min are freshmen. The most vulnerable any incumbent is in their career is as a freshman,” Jarvis said.
While campaigns in the 40th District are showing early signs of hyperactivity, the 45th and 47th Districts remain less defined, with few major challengers emerging yet beyond the incumbents.
But it’s still early: Candidates planning to run for the House in California in 2026 must file by March 6, 2026.
In the 45th District, Republican Michelle Steel, who lost her reelection bid in 2024 to Tran, appears to be keeping her options open.
Steel raised around $74,000 this quarter and much of her spending went to administrative costs. But her campaign committee remains active — a sign, Jarvis said, that she hasn’t ruled out another run. Steel, through a spokesperson, declined to comment on her future plans.
In addition to Steel, Republicans Mark Andrew Leonard and Brian Forde have filed to run in the 45th District. Leonard did not report any fundraising from January through March, while Forde raised $0 but had $220,762 in the bank.
In the 47th District, three Republicans have filed so far. Michael Maxsenti, a founding member of the California Common Sense Party, which was launched in 2019 with the tagline “fiscally responsible and socially inclusive” to attract moderate voters, reported raising $7,500 in the first quarter, all from a personal loan. Brian Burley reported just over $2,500 in contributions, while Ryan Sage Lam did not report any fundraising.
Down in the 49th District, however, four-term Democratic incumbent Mike Levin, who raised over $677,000 in the first quarter, appears to have a more formidable challenger.
Levin, who won reelection narrowly in 2022 and in 2024, is likely to be a Democratic priority to defend in 2026.
In the first fundraising quarter, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond brought in close to $424,000 without relying on personal funds. Desmond is the only Republican challenger in an Orange County congressional race to break into six-figure territory during the first quarter.
So far, Desmond and two other candidates have filed to challenge Levin in 2026. Julian Arellano, an American Independent Party candidate, reported raising about $1,971, while Republican Eli Stern reported no fundraising from January through March.
By contrast, Rep. Lou Correa, who represents the reliably blue 46th District, raised just under $200,000, and Rep. Linda Sánchez in California’s 38th District, also a safe district for Democrats, brought in around $180,000.
David Pan, who lost to Correa in 2024, has filed to run against him again in 2026. Pan, a German language and history professor at UC Irvine, reported raising $8,259 in the first quarter and loaned his campaign $2,000.
Jarvis said non-threatened incumbents typically fundraise at a lower clip compared to freshmen or those who’ve faced recent competitive races. But even then, fundraising is never fully optional.
“All members have to keep their oars in the water at all times,” Jarvis said. “But freshmen and those who ran a close race have to call, call, call.”
Nationally, Democrats generally have had the fundraising advantage in recent cycles, but this year, Republicans are jumping out to an early lead.
According to an analysis by Erin Covey, a House race analyst with the Cook Political Report, the median House Democrat in a competitive district raised $440,000, while the median Republican raised $940,000 from January through March.
It’s too early to tell whether that advantage will last, Covey said. Republicans also began the 2024 cycle with a solid lead, but by the start of the election year, Democrats had caught up, and in many races, outspent their GOP counterparts.
Still, the first-quarter momentum among GOP incumbents is hard to ignore.
Seven Republican House members in battleground seats raised more than $1 million between January and March — including Kim and fellow Rep. Ken Calvert in California’s 41st District, who brought in $1.3 million.
Of the 17 Republican incumbents in districts the Cook Political Report rated “toss up” or “lean Republican,” Kim reported having the most money in the bank, over $2.5 million.
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