But, just as nobody expected Runcorn and Helsby MP Mike Amesbury to trigger the contest by thumping a constituent on a night out, few would have predicted the giddying surge of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which now has the small, tough northern town firmly in its sights.
And now, Reform sources are predicting it will be an incredibly tight race on 1 May, with just “1,000 votes in it”, according to one insider.
It also includes the market town of Frodsham, the location of Amesbury’s notorious fracas, where Take That star Gary Barlow was raised, and James Bond actor Daniel Craig lived for a few years when his father, Tim, was landlord of the 400-year-old Grade II listed Ring O’ Bells pub.
Perfectly summarising this mix is The Daresbury. Formerly a Britannia three-star hotel and spa, once commanding as much as £5,000 as a wedding venue, it now serves as stark temporary housing for asylum seekers awaiting application decisions.
Nigel Farage during a visit to Frodsham Country Market in Frodsham, Cheshire, with Runcorn and Helsby by-election Reform candidate Sarah Pochin, whilst on the local election campaign trail (Photo: PA)The Daresbury, formerly a Britannia three-star hotel and spa, once commanded as much as £5,000 per function as a wedding venue (Photo: Robbie Hawken for The i Paper)The constituency takes in the cargo port of Runcorn, where comedian John Bishop and darts superstar Luke Littler grew up (Photo: Robbie Hawken for The i Paper)The single men have all been moved on elsewhere, but families awaiting their application’s approval or rejection remain. A torn Kurdistan flag is hung in a window. No music comes from inside, and the sense of boredom is palpable. An advertising hoarding near the entrance trumpets an “exciting new development” of Castle Green family homes at Daresbury Garden Village, coming soon to a neighbouring plot.
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Read MoreTo the less supportive, this hotel, which has capacity for around 425 people at a time, represents Labour’s perceived failure to curb small boat Channel crossings and “smash the gangs”. Martin Kearney, a 48-year-old former soldier who now drives a taxi, said he will be voting for Reform after years of backing Labour.
But campaigners argue that there are not enough safe and legal routes allowing asylum seekers to travel safely to the UK, rather than in small boats.
Martin Kearney, a 48-year-old former soldier who now drives a taxi, said he will be voting for Reform (Photo: Robbie Hawken for The i Paper)Nigel Farage during a campaign visit to Frodsham Market in Apri (Photo: Getty)
Reform has rented a unit in the cavernous, strip-lit Runcorn Shopping City mall for candidate Sarah Pochin, a former magistrate and councillor who quit the Conservatives to become an independent before signing up with Farage. Young, cheerful staff give out turquoise campaign materials to prospective constituents as two heavies watch the door. The party has promised to end the local bridge toll and install new leisure facilities, but is also putting a lot of focus on the Daresbury Hotel.
Shopper Ethel McGill, 74, uses a mobility scooter. She lives in local authority accommodation, which she says is inaccessible and a fire hazard. The former Labour voter says the party “has let us down,” and she is also switching to Reform.
She is “angry” at Starmer’s choices. “They’ve broken their word, right, left and centre. They said there’d be no increase in taxes and they wouldn’t increase national insurance [Labour raised national insurance contributions for businesses, which technically did not break a manifesto pledge]. Now kids can’t get a job. They’ve taken the winter fuel payment away, but they’re spending billions on other countries. Charity begins at home.”
Reform candidate Sarah Pochin described regeneration of the town centre as one of the most pressing issues for voters in Runcorn (Photo: Robbie Hawken/The i Paper)Sarah Pochin: ‘..Runcorn residents feel that they’ve been forgotten about, neglected, and dumped on’ (Photo: Robbie Hawken/The i Paper)What is Starmer doing to tackle illegal immigration?
Last month, Starmer highlighted efforts to tackle illegal immigration, claiming the Government has returned more than 24,000 people who have no right to be here.
Of those, only 6,339 were “enforced returns” with the majority returning to their country of origin voluntarily.
Meanwhile, the 8,064 migrants arriving in the UK after crossing the Channel was a new record for the first four months of the year, according to provisional Home Office figures.
Suspected people smugglers will face travel bans, social media blackouts and phone restrictions under new laws announced earlier this year.
To some voters, this hotel represents Labour’s perceived failure to curb small boat Channel crossings (Photo: Robbie Hawken/The i Paper)Labour candidate Karen Shore, a former teacher and local councillor (Photo: Robbie Hawken/The i Paper)
Shore, a former teacher and local councillor, is seeking to present “a positive vision of what Labour have delivered and promised to deliver” including her “passion” for better outcomes for young people. She is also eager to regenerate the town centre and talk up the potential of new jobs from green energy investment. She also wants to discuss why Farage has been spending so much time in the constituency if he has absolute faith in the quality of his candidate. Meanwhile, Labour has asked all of its MPs to visit Runcorn to campaign.
“A lot of people I’ve spoken to, although they may not be quite happy about some of the decisions we’ve made or the Government have made, they understand that we are in the fixing the foundation stage of it, and there is more to come,” she says.
A recent Lord Ashcroft poll put Reform ahead of Labour by 40% to 35% when respondents were weighted according to stated likelihood to turn out and vote at the by-election. (Photo: The i Paper)
Angry Labour voters jump to Reform and Greens
Yet a pattern is emerging across the country in council by-elections, elections expert and Conservative peer Robert Hayward told The i Paper, where disaffected Labour voters are either jumping to Reform on the right or the Liberal Democrats and Greens to the left. “In recent weeks, there have been two council by-elections in St Helens, which is the borough next door to Runcorn. In one case, Labour lost straight to Reform,” he says. In another case, although the council seat was held by the Liberal Democrats, it had been historically Labour and went to Reform too.
“Loads of my friends in school were immigrants, lots of people I’ve worked with are immigrants, but you’ve got to go about it the right way through the laws,” she says. “The immigrants should be given a place where they can work for housing. People my age can’t get housing. For me to get at least a flat, I’d have to live with somebody else, but the places like hotels have been open to migrants while there still are veterans on the streets at Christmas time.” But she’s also tempted by the Greens “because I do want more green spaces for the children to prevent littering, which leads to more major crimes”.
Caitlin O’Callaghan, a past Labour voter, is now reconsidering (Photo: Robbie Hawken/The i Paper)“I’m not very political. I just believe in doing good, and good comes back to you. But bits that I’ve read about Reform, I don’t think I would go down that avenue, especially what I think they want to do with the NHS. A lot of it is becoming private now, and I think if we go down that route, it will be sold off [entirely]. Some of Farage’s policies around different races, I don’t agree with whatsoever.
Kristine Pluger, a 51-year-old care worker and dog sitter (Photo: Robbie Hawken/The i Paper)
Green candidate for Parliament Chris Copeman argues the Daresbury Hotel hasn’t had a direct effect on the local area, and Reform has “cruel and heartless” policies.
Rachel Doyle, 51, a contracts manager at Halton Borough Council, is a lifelong Labour voter. “I find it very difficult to take Reform seriously because of this sycophantic Trump-love,” she says. “We’re a small local authority. I’ve seen for myself how we have stripped back through procurement over the years. There’s nothing left to strip back.”
And some voters seem to be using this by-election to vent their dissatisfaction with Labour, but might be wooed back at the general election if their vote could determine the Government.
While a win for Reform would undoubtedly be damaging for Starmer, anyone attempting to spin it as the start of Labour’s collapse at the general election will be speaking too soon. Nevertheless, Labour strategists will take some lessons about the party’s policy direction, even if they manage to cling on to Runcorn and Helsby.
But for Reform, the stakes are different. If they can win this seat in Labour’s heartlands, Farage will hope it can drive his party towards toppling the Red Wall.
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