The 2025 NBA playoffs are finally upon us. Here are each team’s chances of advancing past the first round and the key factors in each series.
With the 2024-25 regular season now behind us, it is time for the 2025 NBA playoffs.
The first round will feature eight different series, and we are here to preview all of them.
A team will have to survive three rounds within its conference to advance to the NBA Finals, which begin on June 5.
Let the fun begin.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat
Regular-Season Records – Cleveland: 64-18; Atlanta: 40-42/Miami: 37-45 Head-to-Head Record – Atlanta 2-1 vs. Cleveland/Cleveland 2-1 vs. Miami Team Ratings – Cleveland: No. 1 in O-TRACR, No. 8 in D-TRACR, No. 3 in TRACR; Atlanta: No. 16 in O-TRACR, No. 22 in D-TRACR, No. 21 in TRACR; Miami: No. 19 in O-TRACR, No. 9 in D-TRACR, No. 14 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – Cleveland: Donovan Mitchell (3.6); Atlanta: Onyeka Okongwu (1.7); Miami: Bam Adebayo (2.1). PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Cleveland: Donovan Mitchell (24.0)/Jarrett Allen (9.7)/Darius Garland (6.7); Atlanta: Trae Young (24.2)/Onyeka Okongwu (8.9)/Trae Young (11.6); Miami: Tyler Herro (23.9)/Bam Adebayo (9.6)/Tyler Herro (5.5). Biggest X-Factor – 3-Point Shooting – Anytime you have a David and Goliath-like series, there has to be a little bit of luck in order for the underdog to come out on top. When the Miami Heat upset the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the 2023 playoffs, they shot 45% from behind the arc. It will take similar hot shooting (along with some cold shooting from the Cleveland Cavaliers) for an improbable outcome here. Win Probability – Cleveland: 86,0%; Atlanta/Miami: 14,0%.No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
Regular-Season Records – Boston: 61-21; Orlando: 41-41. Head-to-Head Record – Orlando 2-1 vs. Boston. Team Ratings – Boston: No. 4 in O-TRACR, No. 4 in D-TRACR, No. 2 in TRACR; Orlando: No. 27 in O-TRACR, No. 2 in D-TRACR, No. 16 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – Boston: Kristaps Porzingis (3.5); Orlando: Franz Wagner (1.4). PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Boston: Jayson Tatum (26.8)/Jayson Tatum (8.7)/Jayson Tatum (6.0); Orlando: Paolo Banchero (25.9)/Paolo Banchero (7.5)/Paolo Banchero (4.8). Biggest X-Factor – Cole Anthony – The Orlando Magic have the defense to hang with the Boston Celtics. The problem is that their offense pales in comparison to them. If they are going to have any chance of scoring enough points to win this series, the Magic are going to need Anthony to be at his very best. After a slow start to the season, he’ played efficient basketball to end the regular season. He also scored 26 points in just over 20 minutes in the Magic’s play-in round victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Anthony will need to keep this torrid pace up for the Magic to hang with the Celtics offensively. Win Probability – Boston: 82.5%; Orlando: 17.5%.No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Detroit Pistons
Regular-Season Records – New York: 51-31; Detroit: 44-38. Head-to-Head Record – Detroit 3-1 vs. New York. Team Ratings – New York: No. 5 in O-TRACR, No. 15 in D-TRACR, No. 10 in TRACR; Detroit: No. 17 in O-TRACR, No. 11 in D-TRACR, No. 15 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – New York: Jalen Brunson (2.1); Detroit: Ausar Thompson (1.4). PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – New York: Jalen Brunson (26.0)/Karl-Anthony Towns (12.8)/Jalen Brunson (7.3); Detroit: Cade Cunningham (26.1)/Jalen Duren (10.3)/Cade Cunningham (9.1). Biggest X-Factor – Fouls – If the Detroit Pistons are going to beat the New York Knicks, they must slow down Jalen Brunson. Their two best options to defend him are Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland. Both of those guys are talented wing defenders (Thompson is even tied for fifth in the NBA in D-DRIP). The problem is that they are young and a little foul-prone. Pair this with Brunson’s affinity for drawing fouls (97th percentile in free throw rate), and the Pistons could find themselves in a world of trouble. To win this series, Thompson and Holland will need to make sure they don’t bite on any pump fakes. Win Probability – New York: 61.8%; Detroit: 38.2%.No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks
Regular-Season Records – Indiana: 50-32; Milwaukee: 48-34. Head-to-Head Record – 2-2 Tie. Team Ratings – Indiana: No. 9 in O-TRACR, No. 14 in D-TRACR, No. 11 in TRACR; Milwaukee: No. 12 in O-TRACR, No. 13 in D-TRACR, No. 12 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton (4.2); Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo (4.1). PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Indiana: Pascal Siakam (20.2)/Pascal Siakam (6.9)/Tyrese Haliburton (9.2); Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4)/Giannis Antetokounmpo (11.9)/Damian Lillard (7.1). Biggest X-Factor – Damian Lillard – After it seemed like his season was over, Lillard defied all odds by returning from deep vein thrombosis in a matter of weeks. Lillard won’t be available for Game 1, but he’s expected back at some point in the series. But here’s the other kicker: the Milwaukee Bucks have been playing better without Lillard. In their last 14 games without him, the Bucks are 10-4 with the fourth-best offense during that time. When will Lillard be back? And is it for the better or worse when he is? Win Probability – Indiana: 50.5%; Milwaukee: 49.5%.Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies/Dallas Mavericks
Regular-Season Records – Oklahoma City: 68-14; Memphis: 48-34/Dallas: 39-43. Head-to-Head Record – Oklahoma City 4-0 vs. Memphis/Dallas 3-1 vs. Oklahoma City. Team Ratings – Oklahoma City: No. 2 in O-TRACR, No. 1 in D-TRACR, No. 1 in TRACR; Memphis: No. 6 in O-TRACR, No. 10 in D-TRACR, No. 7 in TRACR/Dallas: No. 18 in O-TRACR, No. 20 in D-TRACR, No. 19 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4.9); Memphis: Jaren Jackson Jr. (1.5)/Dallas: Anthony Davis (3.1) PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)/Isaiah Hartenstein (10.7)/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4); Memphis: Ja Morant (23.2)/Zach Edey (8.3)/Ja Morant (7.3); Dallas: Anthony Davis (20.0)/Anthony Davis (10.1)/Anthony Davis & Spencer Dinwiddie (4.4). Biggest X-Factor – Growing Pains – More than likely, the Oklahoma City Thunder will win this series. With the odds so heavily stacked in their favor, the best thing the Thunder can do here is use this round as a learning experience to help vault them in later rounds. As a young team, they still need to prove their stars are ready for the physicality of the postseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already showed he was ready for battle last year, but Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren still need to rise to a higher level. Can they do it in this first-round matchup? Or will the lights continue to be too bright for them? Win Probability – Oklahoma City: 92.2%; Memphis/Dallas: 7.8%.No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors
Regular-Season Records – Houston: 52-30; Golden State: 48-34. Head-to-Head Record – Golden State 3-2 vs. Houston. Team Ratings – Houston: No. 15 in O-TRACR, No. 5 in D-TRACR, No. 9 in TRACR; Golden State: No. 13 in O-TRACR, No. 6 in D-TRACR, No. 6 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – Houston: Amen Thompson (2.4); Golden State: Jimmy Butler (4.6). PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Houston: Jalen Green (21.0)/Alperen Sengun (10.3)/Fred VanVleet (5.6); Golden State: Stephen Curry (24.5)/Draymond Green and Kevon Looney (6.1)/Stephen Curry (6.0). Biggest X-Factor – Quinten Post – Post only played six-and-a-half minutes when the Golden State Warriors played the Houston Rockets earlier this month. However, he will be crucial to the Warriors’ success in this series. The Warriors are going to need size to deal with the Rockets’ physicality and rebounding. Kevon Looney seems like the obvious choice for this task, but his lack of offense (-0.7 O-DRIP) means that he probably hurts the Warriors more than he helps them at this point. That is why Post is going to be so important. In theory, he gives Golden State the size it needs while also being a knockdown shooter (40.8% from three). Win Probability – Houston: 48.9%; Golden State: 51.1%.No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Regular-Season Records – Los Angeles: 50-32; Minnesota: 49-33. Head-to-Head Record – Tied 2-2. Team Ratings – Los Angeles: No. 8 in O-TRACR, No. 17 in D-TRACR, No. 13 in TRACR; Minnesota: No. 7 in O-TRACR, No. 7 in D-TRACR, No. 5 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – Los Angeles: Luka Doncic (5.4); Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (3.3). PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Los Angeles: Luka Doncic (28.2)/Luka Doncic (8.1)/LeBron James (8.2); Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (27.6)/Rudy Gobert (10.9)/Julius Randle (4.7). Biggest X-Factor – Mike Conley – One thing teams like to do to the Minnesota Timberwolves is send multiple bodies at Anthony Edwards and dare someone else on the team to beat them. When Mike Conley is on the floor, these doubles usually get punished, thanks to his shooting (41.0% on 3s) and quick decision-making. The issue is that he can’t always be on the floor because his age (37) and diminutive frame (6-foot-1) make him an easy target on defense. Will the Timberwolves find ways to keep him from getting hunted by Luka Doncic and all-time scoring leader LeBron James? Or will one of their best offensive players have to spend large portions of the series on the bench? Win Probability – Los Angeles: 33.4%; Minnesota Timberwolves: 66.6%.No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Regular-Season Records – Denver: 50-32; Los Angeles: 50-32. Head-to-Head Record – Tied 2-2. Team Ratings – Denver: No. 3 in O-TRACR, No. 19 in D-TRACR, No. 8 in TRACR; Los Angeles: No. 11 in O-TRACR, No. 3 in D-TRACR, No. 4 in TRACR. DRIP Leaders – Denver: Nikola Jokic (6.0); Los Angeles: Kawhi Leonard (4.5). PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Denver: Nikola Jokic (29.6)/Nikola Jokic (12.7)/Nikola Jokic (10.2); Los Angeles: James Harden (22.8)/Ivica Zubac (12.6)/James Harden (8.7). Biggest X-Factor – Kawhi Leonard – For as long as he’s been in town, the fate of the Los Angeles Clippers has been tied to the health of Kawhi Leonard. Unfortunately for them (and him), his health hasn’t been great. Leonard hasn’t made it through a full postseason healthy since the bubble season of 2020. Leonard looks healthy right now, but can he stay that way? If he can, the Clippers are practically unbeatable (they won 18 of their last 21 games). But if he can’t, another season will end tragically for the “other” team in Los Angeles. Win Probability – Denver: 40.2%; Los Angeles: 59.8%.Like the NBA playoff predictions? For more coverage, follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
2025 NBA Playoff Predictions: Who’s Taking the First (Round) Step to the Championship? Opta Analyst.
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