ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap NVDA $5.5bn bombshell, China data solid, BOJ May hold? ...Middle East

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Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook today, Wednesday, April 16Morgan Stanley cuts outlook for China and Asia stock indexesChina's fighting words on Trump's tariffs - world economic order has been severely damagedChina Industrial Output March 2025 surges to +7.7% y/y (expected 5.8%, prior +5.9%)China Q1 GDP +1.2% q/q (expected +1.4%)Tesla's plans to ship Cybercab & Semi electric truck parts from China to US suspendedChina March new home prices -0.08% m/m (prior -0.1%) and -4.6% y/y (prior -4.8%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2133 (vs. estimate at 7.3272)Gold continues to surge, record high hit above US$3271Hong Kong suspends postal service for good bound for US - refuses to collect tariffsAustralia March Westpac Leading Index - "softens as tariff chaos starts to weigh"US Treas Sec Bessent to meet South Korea’s fin min Choi next week to discuss trade issuesANZ raised its year-end forecast for gold price to $3,600 per ounceANZ forecasts the RBNZ will cut its cash rate to 2.5% by October 2025Japan data: February Core Machinery Orders +1.5% y/y (expected -0.9%, prior +4.4%)Outlook for (US ) Empire State Manufacturing Survey to second lowest reading in 20 yearsU.S. plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China (Wall Street Journal piece)Japan Reuters Tankan - Manufacturing index +9 in April from -1 in MarchJP Morgan says it turns bearish on base metals prices in the near-termBank of Japan Governor Ueda says may need policy response to Trump tariffsTrump has launched a probe into the need for tariffs on critical mineralsUS government has indefinitely banned Nvidia from selling H20 chips to ChinaUS chip equipment makers calculate Trump tariffs could cost them more than US$1bn a yearMoreon this: Fed independence fears continue to simmer amid Supreme Court labor board caseICYMI - BoA CFO says doesn't believe we'll see a recessionOil - private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs, draw expectedForexlive Americas FX news wrap 15 Apr: Another quiet day ahead of Chair Powell tomorrow.Trump says tariff pause because it's a transitionTrade ideas thread - Wednesday, 16 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

An early most jarring development came from Nvidia, which said it will take a US$5.5 billion charge this quarter after the U.S. government imposed an indefinite ban on exports of its H20 chips to China. Part of new licensing requirements for sales to China and other nations. The news sent Nvidia shares sharply lower in after-hours trade, dragging down S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures.

In monetary policy, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told Sankei that Trump’s tariffs have pushed the economy close to a BoJ ‘bad scenario’, warning that the central bank may need to respond if the impact worsens. While reiterating the BOJ’s data-dependence, he signaled a rate hike in May is now less likely (that's my take on his remarks, you may find different), adding that both upside and downside risks to inflation are under close watch.

On the Chinese currency front, the PBOC set the yuan reference rate at 7.2133, the weakest fix since September 2023. The damping today was once again greater than 1000 pips, the PBoC is still guiding CNY lower at a gradual pace.

In the background, the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. is pressing over 70 nations to limit transshipment of Chinese goods as part of its broader tariff strategy, underlining the widening scope of trade friction.Hongkong Post announced it will suspend acceptance of parcels containing goods bound for the U.S., after Washington scrapped duty-free treatment and raised tariffs on such items, effective May 2. The Hong Kong SAR government denounced the move as “bullying” and “abusive.”

Major FX was characterised by a weaker US dollar on the session. EUR, JPY, GBP all rising. AUD, NZD and CAD lagged.

Gold soared higher, another record high price his today:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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