We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League game at the Parc des Princes with our Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Will Luis Enrique’s team build on the momentum of their Ligue 1 title triumph?
Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa Stats: The Key Insights
PSG are the favourites to win the first leg, with Opta’s supercomputer ranking their chances at 64.2%. This is the first meeting in European competition between PSG and Aston Villa. Unai Emery has won just two of his 10 games against Luis Enrique as a manager (D1 L7), with both wins coming in home fixtures.Paris Saint-Germain wrapped up the Ligue 1 title on Saturday with a 1-0 victory over Angers.
They are unbeaten in Ligue 1 this season, with their 28-game run a club record. They now need to go five more matches without defeat in the French top flight and they will surpass the record of 32, set by Nantes in 1994-95.
But now, much, if not all, of their focus will be on the UEFA Champions League, and a quarter-final tie with high-flying Aston Villa.
Unai Emery’s team are pushing for a top-four finish in the Premier League, are into the FA Cup semi-finals and enjoying a sparkling European campaign. PSG, though, present one of the sternest tests possible.
Liverpool boss Arne Slot, in the wake of his side’s penalty shoot-out loss to PSG in the round of 16, suggested Luis Enrique’s team are the best in Europe.
The metrics back up Slot’s claim, too. Of teams in Europe’s top five leagues, only Barcelona (141) have scored more goals across all competitions than PSG (124) this season. In fact, PSG have registered the highest expected goals (118.6), while recording the most shots (878), shots on target (365) and the most big chances (235).
They have won possession back in the final third more times than any other team from Europe’s top five leagues (267 times in all competitions). They are also second only to Bayern Munich for the highest average possession share (67.3%).
PSG have won 21 of their 23 games and scored 73 goals in 2025 (all competitions). They have the most wins and goals of any team from Europe’s top five leagues this calendar year.
This is a lean, mean attacking machine, and the job Luis Enrique has done, particularly following Kylian Mbappé’s departure last summer, cannot be underestimated.
Luis Enrique has been happy to give the kids a chance, too. Perhaps that youthful exuberance, paired with career-best form from Ousmane Dembélé, is what makes PSG’s attack so vibrant?
They have the fifth-youngest starting XI on average in the Champions League this season (24 years, 242 days), and the youngest of any team remaining in the tournament.
Dembélé, though, is at the forefront of everything PSG do well. He has netted seven goals in his last six Champions League games, one more than in his previous 36 appearances in the competition combined.
Six of those seven goals have been scored in away matches, however, so he could do with transitioning that form to the Parc des Princes.
The France international stands on 24 goals and two assists in all competitions in 2025. He has the most goals and total goal involvements (26) of any player from Europe’s top five leagues since the turn of the year.
Désiré Doué netted PSG’s title-winning goal on Saturday. He has been involved in 18 goals in all competitions in 2025 (nine goals, nine assists). In Europe’s top five leagues, he is just second player to accumulate at least nine goals and at least nine assists this year in all competitions, after Raphinha (10 goals, 10 assists).
In midfield, Vitinha and João Neves have been superb.
Vitinha, in particular, has stood out as one of Europe’s elite central midfielders. He has completed 93% of his passes made under high-intensity pressure in the Champions League this season (544/586); the highest completion rate of any midfielder in the competition (min. 100 attempted). The Portuguese international also leads all players for line-breaking passes in the knockout stages of this year’s tournament (77).
But PSG cannot expect Villa to just roll over. Emery’s side will be relishing a home second leg, and they will know that staying in the tie this week is crucial.
Though to do that, attack may well be the best form of defence.
Aston Villa have won 13 games in all competitions in 2025, only five teams in Europe’s top five leagues have won more. They have also scored 37 goals – only nine teams have scored more.
In fact, Villa have won seven consecutive games in all competitions for the first time since a 10-game winning run between March and April 2019 (while playing in the Championship), doing so as a top-flight side for the first time since March 1981 (seven).
Marcus Rashford has hit form following his loan move from Manchester United, while Ollie Watkins (six goals, six assists) and Morgan Rogers (seven goals, five assists) both have 12 goal involvements in all competitions in 2025.
Only PSG (four – Dembélé, Bradley Barcola, Doué and Gonçalo Ramos), Real Madrid (four – Mbappé, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Vinícius Júnior) and Barcelona (four – Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres and Lamine Yamal) have more different players in double figures than Villa.
But there’s also a couple of intriguing sub-plots to this tie.
While Emery is going up against his former employers, Marco Asensio will be hoping to do the damage against his parent club.
PSG loaned Asensio to Villa in the winter window, and the former Real Madrid winger has made an instant impact, scoring eight times and providing one assist.
Asensio has scored three goals in two Champions League appearances for Villa (both as a substitute), after failing to score in 10 games for PSG in the competition.
If he finds the net in this game, 2024-25 would be his best return in a single campaign in the competition, and he is sure to be eager to show PSG what they are missing.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
This is the first competitive meeting between PSG and Villa, with this just the second Champions League quarter-final between French and English sides across the last eight seasons (Manchester City 1-3 Lyon in the only leg in 2019-20).
Villa will be the fourth different English team that PSG have faced in the Champions League this season (also Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool). This is the joint-most opponents from one nation that a team have played against in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign, along with Leeds United in 2000-01 (four Spanish sides) and Real Madrid in 2023-24 (four German sides).
Prior to eliminating Liverpool in the last 16, PSG had exited the competition in each of their last three knockout stage meetings with English teams (v Man City in 2015-16 and 2020-21, and Man Utd in 2018-19).
Villa have never won away to a French opponent in European competition (P5 D2 L3). The last two such games have both been defeats under Emery, losing at Lille in April 2024 (2-1) and at Monaco in January this year (1-0).
Emery has won just two of his 10 games against his compatriot Luis Enrique (D1 L7), with both wins coming in home fixtures.
This will be the first time they have faced each other since the 2016-17 campaign, when Luis Enrique’s Barcelona came from 4-0 down in the first leg to eliminate Emery’s PSG side in the Champions League last 16 (6-1 win in the second leg).
Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa Prediction
PSG are made the favourites to win the first leg, having come out on top in 64.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s data-led sims.
There is a 19.3% chance of a draw, and a 16.5% probability of Villa taking an aggregate lead back to Villa Park.
PSG are also the favourites to progress from the tie as a whole, though. In fact, only Barcelona (78%) are given a greater chance of reaching the semi-finals than PSG (72.2%). The French champions have a 19.9% likelihood of going all the way and ending their wait for European glory.
Villa’s 27.8% chance of making the last four ranks ahead of only Borussia Dortmund (22%).
Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa Squads
PSG: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matvey Safonov, Arnau Tenas, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Lucas Beraldo, Yoram Zague, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Senny Mayulu, Warren Zaïre-Emery, João Neves, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola, Ibrahim Mbaye.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martinez, Robin Olsen, Matty Cash, Axel Disasi, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, Lucas Digne, Pau Torres, Ian Maatsen, Boubacar Kamara, Ross Barkley, John McGinn, Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana, Jacob Ramsey, Marcus Rashford, Ollie Watkins, Marco Asensio, Morgan Rogers, Leon Bailey.
Manager: Unai Emery
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Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa Prediction Opta Analyst.
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