Unless you hate the SEC, Saturday night will be awesome. Well, I suppose it’ll still be awesome because Duke-Houston is happening. It’s also worth noting that the SEC has already clinched the record for most losses by a conference in an NCAA Tournament with 12. We know that number will only grow with Auburn and Florida facing off.
Jokes aside, this is a monumental moment for SEC basketball. An SEC Final Four matchup is happening for the first time in conference history, and it’s fitting that it’s with the regular-season conference champ and the conference tournament champ.
Who is playing better? Who has the advantage? And what will this come down to?
Here are some final thoughts and a prediction:
I’ve now talked myself into Johni Broome looking like himself
Earlier in the week, I was skeptical that Broome would be at full-go after the awkward landing he took in the second half of the Elite Eight game against Michigan State. Broome apparently saying “I’m done” as he walked to the sideline and headed to the locker room for X-rays might’ve played a part in that. And while I don’t think the injury should be diminished just because of Broome’s legendary 3-pointer upon his surprising return, the more I think about it, the more I expect him to play through whatever elbow/wrist/right arm injury he suffered.
I can close my eyes and envision Broome having a 12-point, 10-rebound first half, wherein he looks confident displaying his full array of post moves, even against a disciplined group of Florida bigs. I can picture Dylan Cardwell doing all the dirty work — his ability to seal off post defenders without drawing offensive fouls is among the best in the sport — and Auburn looking like the best version of itself.
Maybe that’s overly optimistic. There’s a chance that as skilled as Broome is, a limited right arm will prevent him from being any sort of a factor on the glass, and his post moves won’t have the same impact. If that happens, Auburn will have to win a 65-62 type game.
But the extra rest should bode well for Broome, who wasn’t practicing earlier in the week. By Saturday, though, Florida (and everyone else) should prepare for the All-American to look the part.
Florida’s defensive assignment on Tahaad Pettiford will be pivotal
It’s no secret that the Auburn freshman has been on a tear during his first NCAA Tournament. His 17.3 points per game have felt even louder because of his shot-making. Whether it’s the step-back, finishing at the rim or a pull-up jumper, Pettiford has been the bucket-getter that Auburn needed him to be, especially with Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara at less than 100%.
It’ll be interesting to see how Florida defends that. Walter Clayton Jr. could draw that matchup after showing improvement on that side of the ball, but does Todd Golden want his best shot-maker chasing around Pettiford on defense? Will Richard could be the best option, though he might make more sense to match up with the length of Baker-Mazara. Or perhaps the answer is Alijah Martin, who wasn’t available in the first meeting between these teams when Pettiford had 14 points in a 9-point Florida victory.
The good news for Florida is that including Denzel Aberdeen off the bench, there are a variety of looks that Golden can throw at Pettiford. Florida also has the luxury of letting someone like the 6-9 Thomas Haugh switch on Pettiford and not feel like that’s an obvious mismatch off the dribble.
For all the talk about Florida’s shot-making down the stretch in the postseason, such an important reason why it reached that first Final Four since 2014 was because it refused to let a player like Pettiford take over a game. Guys like Derik Queen, Liam McNeeley and Darrion Williams had plenty of success, but not someone hovering around 6 feet like Pettiford.
It’ll take some creativity to prevent the Auburn freshman from stealing the spotlight once again.
Sooner or later, Florida has to stop digging these holes for itself
It’s gotten to the point where I just expect Florida will get off to a sloppy start with turnovers, and eventually, it’ll settle in. Florida hasn’t trailed at half in the NCAA Tournament yet, but the last time it led by more than 3 at the break was in the first round. And of course, it trailed with less than 3 minutes to play against UConn and Texas Tech. Those late surges beat the alternative. Clayton and Haugh have been remarkable down the stretch, and some of the defensive plays from Richard deserve to be remembered as key moments during this run.
But at what point does Florida run into a team that knows how to keep a 2-3 possession lead? Auburn did that against Michigan State. Whether that was simply the byproduct of the Spartans going ice cold from beyond the arc or the presence of the Tigers’ length and perimeter defense is debatable. What’s not debatable is that Auburn knows how to close a game. The Tigers’ second-half defense in the NCAA Tournament has been their catalyst. Michigan State might’ve gotten 40 second-half points, but from 17:13-0:13 in the second half, it wasn’t a 2-possession game.
Auburn can fend elite teams off as well as anyone in the country. Florida’s had some fortunate bounces down the stretch (Texas Tech missing the front end of those 1-and-1s will haunt Red Raider fans forever). Couple that with elite poise and sure, you can’t assume the Gators are ever in jeopardy of getting run out of the gym.
Just don’t assume a potential 9-point deficit — much like the one Florida overcame at Auburn in February — is something that the Gators are destined to overcome.
Is there a master vs. disciple battle that went to the disciple twice in the same year?
I’m legitimately asking that question because, while I’m sure it’s happened at some point in college basketball, I’m struggling to come up with any sort of relevant example. Roy Williams faced Dean Smith twice (not in the same season) and split those NCAA Tournament matchups in 1991 and 1993. I suppose that Jeff Capel beating Mike Krzyzewski in a regular-season game in 2021 would count, though that was only one occurrence, and to embody the true “master vs. disciple” dynamic, one usually associates that with a rising assistant who hadn’t been a head coach yet.
Ah! I’ve got one! Matt Painter, who worked under Bruce Weber during their days together at Southern Illinois, led Purdue to multiple victories against Illinois during the 2007-08 season … but then lost in the third meeting in the Big Ten Tournament (Painter had 4 such seasons in which he beat Weber’s Illinois squads multiple times). But none of those games took place in the NCAA Tournament.
This would be a unique feather in Golden’s cap if he got the better of Pearl in their second matchup, and obviously, doing so on the Final Four stage would be quite the flex for the former Auburn assistant. Golden has, what I would argue, the only loss on Auburn’s résumé that you can’t really ignore at this point. Sure, both teams have played a ton of games since that matchup 2 months ago, but Florida going into Neville Arena and handing Auburn its only loss in a 3-month stretch is still quite the feat.
The only thing that could one-up it would be Golden winning the rematch to clinch a national championship berth.
And a prediction … Auburn 73, Florida 71
I’m the one who predicted that Florida would win it all and Auburn would get bounced in the Sweet 16, so what gives? This is pretty simple. I’m done doubting Auburn. I don’t care if the Tigers are likely going to be underdogs in both games (the FanDuel line is currently Florida -2.5), I’m done doubting a team that showed us that losing 3 of 4 entering the NCAA Tournament — a mark that nobody has overcome en route to a national title — wasn’t a sign that this team peaked too early.
Maybe I tipped my pick a bit earlier by predicting that Broome would look like the best version of himself, but I envision a scenario in which everyone on that Auburn roster is feeding off his presence. The Tigers look like the hungrier team. They get loose balls. They get tip-back offensive rebounds that lead to second-chance points. They take advantage of some careless Florida passing early. Auburn does everything it couldn’t do in that first matchup against the Gators. That proves to be the perfect preamble for Pearl’s squad in the rematch, which goes down to the wire and ends with a missed 30-footer from Clayton at the horn.
As tempting as it is to stick with my original pick that Florida wins it all, would anybody be surprised if the Auburn-Duke Part II collision course was how this season was decided? Nope. That’s ultimately how I see this shaking out.
The 2 best teams in college basketball will face off for all the marbles on Monday night.
Final thoughts (and a prediction) for Auburn-Florida in the Final Four Saturday Down South.
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