Arsenal are considered strong favourites with the Opta supercomputer as they aim to keep their slim title hopes alive at Goodison Park on Saturday. Look ahead to the game with our Everton vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Everton vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer ranks Arsenal as clear favourites with a 53.2% win probability to Everton’s 20.8%. Everton are winless in their past four Premier League encounters against Arsenal. Only Liverpool are currently on a longer unbeaten run away from home in the Premier League than Arsenal.Arsenal are going strong away from home in the Premier League but will need to improve on an average record on Merseyside to keep their flagging title hopes alive at Everton.
The Gunners are currently on a 10-match unbeaten run away from home in the top flight (W5 D5), with only Liverpool (17 games) owning a better current streak in the league.
Indeed, since the start of 2024, the Gunners have amassed more points on the road (52) than any other team in the competition and have conceded fewer goals than any other side on their travels (16).
However, across all competitions, Arsenal have won just three of their past 26 away games on Merseyside against Everton and Liverpool (D10 L13). Prior to that, they had won six of their previous seven visits to Merseyside.
Captain Martin Ødegaard has excelled against Everton in the past, registering five goal involvements in his past seven Premier League matches against the Toffees (three goals, two assists). However, only one of those came at Goodison Park with the Norwegian opening the scoring in a 2-1 defeat in December 2021.
Toffees boss David Moyes accrued three wins from his first five home Premier League matches against Arsenal between 2002 and 2007 (D1 L1) but has since emerged victorious just once from 13 such games (D5 L7), picking up a 1-0 win as Manchester United boss in November 2013.
Everton have only lost one of their last 13 Premier League matches at Goodison Park (W4 D7) but have drawn each of their last three at home. They have not drawn four in a row in their soon-to-be former stadium in the competition since between January and February 2015.
Late drama could be on the cards, with Everton scoring four 90th-minute goals at Goodison Park in the top flight this season, with three of those being equalisers in draws. It represents the most 90th-minute goals on home soil they have scored in the competition since 2016-17 (also four), and joint-most equalising goals in the last minute along with 2010-11 (three).
Among current Everton players, no one has more Premier League goals against Arsenal than Ashley Young (2), who scored both of those in an 8-2 thrashing of the Gunners for Manchester United in August 2011.
The veteran defender has 10 yellow cards against Arsenal, with only Kevin Davies (11 versus Arsenal) and Mark Noble (11 versus Tottenham) receiving more against one opponent in Premier League history.
Arsenal’s injury issues reared their ugly head again in the 2-1 win over Fulham. Bukayo Saka made a goalscoring return but Gabriel Magalhães picked up a hamstring injury and is ruled out for the rest of 2024-25. In addition, Jurriën Timber went off with a knee problem, while Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori missed that game. They are also without Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, and Takehiro Tomiyasu.
Iliman Ndiaye and Dwight McNeil are getting closer to fitness for Everton but are unlikely to feature here, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin is back on the grass but not ready to return. Vitaliy Mykolenko is also a doubt.
Everton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Everton had a run of four wins from five league games against Arsenal between December 2020 and February 2023 but are now winless in their past four against the Gunners (D1 L3).
The Toffees lost this exact fixture 1-0 last season having previously gone unbeaten in five at home against Arsenal (W4 D1). They have not lost consecutive home league games against the Gunners since a run of three between 2009 and 2012.
The reverse fixture between the sides ended goalless back in December but Arsenal have not kept a clean sheet in both meetings with Everton in a single campaign since 2011-12. You have to go back as far as 1912-13 for the last time they failed to score in both league meetings with the Toffees.
Everton vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal, perhaps unsurprisingly, are the clear favourites in this one despite not having the best recent record at Goodison Park, with the Gunners triumphing on 53.2% of occasions from the 10,000 simulations ran by the Opta supercomputer.
Everton, meanwhile, have a 20.8% chance of victory, with the draw rated as a 26.0% possibility at Goodison Park.
In terms of the season overall, Arsenal have a 93.6% chance of remaining second, while their chances of winning the title now sit at 0.7%.
Everton’s finishing position is not quite as clear, though currently they are most likely to place 16th (29.1%).
Everton vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Everton vs Arsenal Prediction Opta Analyst.
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