What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?US CPI to reaffirm stall in disinflation progress?ECB's Šimkus: We will see if we cut rates or pause in AprilECB president Lagarde says must set policy so inflation converges to 2% targetTrump's steel and aluminum tariffs take effectEU says to respond to US steel, aluminum tariffs with countermeasuresUK trade minister says negotiating with the US to eliminate additional tariffsUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 7 March +11.2% vs +20.4% priorRussia says waiting to hear from US on acceptability of a ceasefireHonda agrees to ¥15,000 average monthly wage hike for 2025
Markets:
CAD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.8%US 10-year yields up 0.7 bps to 4.295%Gold flat at $2,914.63WTI crude up 1.0% to $66.90Bitcoin up 0.2% to $82,941Risk trades are holding up and the dollar is also keeping steadier, with some hope that the inflation numbers will offer some reprieve after a volatile and rough week thus far.
In FX, USD/JPY is holding up with the pair gradually nudging higher from 148.20 to 148.60 levels during the session. EUR/USD remains little changed as it weaves in and out of the 1.0900 mark while GBP/USD is flattish at 1.2950 levels currently.
It's all to play for in the second half of this week and the US CPI report today will hopefully offer something more decisive for market players to work with. Otherwise, we'll continue to be sucked into following every tariff headline until the dust settles when Trump feels it should.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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