On Monday, Reform’s Deputy Leader Richard Tice suggested the UK should take a “one in, one out” approach to immigration. On Tuesday, Tory Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp was out and about highlighting how so far, 2025 has been by far the worst year ever for English Channel small boat crossings.
Last month, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper insisted that nearly 19,000 foreign criminals and people with no right to be here have now been removed since Labour took office last summer.
Eyeing local elections in May, both the Tories and Reform have concluded that there is significant voter appetite to go hard on migration. Meanwhile, this week, Keir Starmer’s Labour Government is mostly focusing on welfare cuts and talking up planning reforms to build more homes, both core economic concerns.
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It's all starting to go wrong for Reform – but don't blame Rupert Lowe
Read More“Voters have become more concerned about immigration over the last few years, with it now ranking second to the economy in terms of public’s priorities,” Scarlett Maguire Director of pollsters JL Partners told The i Paper.
“The Conservatives are in a difficult situation. A lot of their 2019 voters left them in 2024, citing the party’s handling of immigration as their biggest concern, and it will be hard for them to rebuild this trust as things stand.”
“The latest announcement from the Conservatives is shameless posturing from a party that was responsible for one of the biggest policy failures in modern British history for which they should never be forgiven. The only reason we need to deport so many foreign criminals in the first place is because of the Tories total failure in Government,” the Reform leader said.
New research suggests the answer is not necessarily. The Nuffield Politics Research Centre for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation think tank has found that “economically insecure” mid-lifers are the new swing voters driving recent voter volatility and loss of support for Labour since the general election. Wooing them back is key to Labour MPs holding on to their seats.
The squeezed mid-life peak in economic insecurity is down to a combination of childcare duties, mortgage repayments, low savings, unsecured debts and a lack of disposable income in case of emergencies.
According to Professor Jane Green who led the research, the “importance of economics to all of the volatility that’s happening in British politics has really been overlooked” as parties focus on immigration.
No wonder the Cabinet spent a large chunk of time discussing the economy on Tuesday morning, with both Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves talking up their priorities. According to No 10’s official readout of the meeting, she reminded colleagues “the country had experienced what had happened when the previous Government lost control of the public finances and the impact that had on working people, including through the cost of mortgages.”
Instead, they need to let the Tories and Reform slug it out like seaside puppets and bang on about migration. For Labour to see voter support returning and a subsequent boost in the polls, it really is all about the economy. Other parties could take note too.
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