Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Growth concerns mount on a crazy day ...Middle East

Trump: Zelensky disrespected Oval Office and he can come back when he's ready for peaceMore from Trump to Zelenskyy: You either make a deal or we are outAtlanta Fed GDPNow tracker swan dives into recessionary territoryUS January PCE core +2.6% vs +2.6% expectedUS advance goods trade balance for January -$153.26 billion versus -$122.0B last monthCanada GDP for Q4 annualized 2.6% versus 1.8% estimateUS advance wholesale inventories +0.7% vs -0.5% expTrump: This is a great agreement if war stops. Zelenskyy: I want to see what US is to doGoolsbee: Cautions against over-anticipating productivity impact.Mexico open to new tariffs on China to avoid Trump dutiesBessent gives away the game on the Mexico/Canada tariff strategyCanada December FY YTD budget deficit at $21.72B vs $22.72B a year agoGermany February preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y expected

Gold down $23 to $2852US 10-year yields down 7.7 bps to 4.21%WTI crude oil down 36-cents to $70.00S&P 500 up 1.2%USD leads, NZD lags

Every day is an adventure so far in 2025.

That really shouldn't have been a surprise given tariff threats and the potential to front-run them but it wasn't in the economist estimates and it took until the Atlanta Fed GDPNow number highlighted the impact on Q1 GDP for the market to really care. That led to a further bid in bonds and now we've seen the yield curve invert again and year-end pricing is for 68 bps in easing compared to 40 bps a couple weeks ago.

I'm inclined to think there was some month-end rebalancing there or short covering but it could have been driven by rate cut hopes/expectations. On that front, next week is a big one with non-farm payrolls coming up. Internationally, we get China's National People's Congress as well, which is also sure to be a big market mover.

Have a great weekend, I'm sure March will be just as volatile as February.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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