February is drawing to a close, making this an ideal time to break down the college basketball futures market and see what value may be on the table.
In this week’s piece, we’ll take a look at odds for multiple bubble teams to reach the NCAA Tournament. By breaking down those odds and comparing them to public projection models, we can try to identify any value that may be there for bettors in the market.
An important note before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from various sportsbooks.
College basketball futures bets for Feb. 28
Here are 3 college basketball futures bets to consider based on the process outlined above:
Indiana to miss the NCAA Tournament (+155 on bet365)
Implied odds: 39.22% BartTorvik odds: 72.5% Expected value: $84.88 on a $100 wagerIndiana has endured a roller-coaster of a season. The Hoosiers lost 7 of 8 Big Ten games at one point this season, but have now won 3 of their last 4. That hot streak has IU on the right side of the bubble according to the betting markets entering this weekend.
However, BartTorvik’s model still shows Indiana as a relative long-shot to make the Big Dance. IU is outside the top-50 in predictive metrics like BartTorvik and KenPom. It’s résumé rankings are also generally outside of the top-50. IU has 1 remaining Quad 1 game before the Big Ten Tournament to try to earn a significant résumé win — at Oregon on Tuesday.
bet365 Sportsbook
States: NJ, PA, AZ, CO, IA, IN, KY, NJ, LA, OH, VA GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (CO/KY/LA/NJ/OH/VA) and 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA) 21+ (CO/IA/NJ/OH/VA) and 18+ (KY)
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