Can Eddie Howe take his side on another trophy hunt? We look ahead to Sunday’s FA Cup fifth-round clash with our Newcastle vs Brighton prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Brighton Stats: The Key Insights
Newcastle United are the favourites to win in 90 minutes, triumphing across 51.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Brighton have lost just two of their last 15 meetings with Newcastle in all competitions (D7 W6), winning 1-0 in the Premier League this term already. William Osula averages a goal or assist every 48 minutes in the FA Cup, scoring seven and assisting three across seven appearances in the competition.Newcastle United will hope to replicate their EFL Cup heroics as they aim to reach the FA Cup quarter-finals, though they must first get past resurgent Brighton on Sunday.
Eddie Howe’s side have already reached the EFL Cup final, which will pit them against runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool next month, after beating the likes of Nottingham Forest, Chelsea and Arsenal in that competition.
Newcastle were 2-0 losers at Anfield in Wednesday’s Premier League dress rehearsal against Liverpool, leaving the Magpies sixth but just three points of the top four.
Their next challenge is to turn their focus back to the FA Cup, in which they have seen off lower-league opposition this season thanks to victories over Birmingham City and Bromley.
Newcastle’s route to this stage was far from simple, however, sneaking through with a 3-2 victory against League One leaders Birmingham after a memorable clash at St. Andrews. Joe Willock‘s double and a Callum Wilson tap-in was just enough to see the away side through.
Young striker William Osula claimed the assist for Wilson’s goal at Birmingham, and he averages a goal or assist every 48 minutes in the FA Cup. The former Sheffield United forward has scored seven and assisted three across seven appearances in the competition (480 minutes).
Newcastle will feel confident given they have progressed from each of their last nine FA Cup fifth-round ties since a 1-0 loss at Blackburn Rovers in 1992-93. Howe’s side are now looking to reach the quarter-finals in consecutive campaigns for the first time since 2004-05 and 2005-06.
However, they face a Brighton side who have already beaten them 1-0 in the Premier League at St. James’ Park this season. Hürzeler’s side have also won each of their last four matches in all competitions after Tuesday’s hard-fought 2-1 win over Bournemouth.
The Seagulls hammered Championship opponents Norwich City 4-0 in the third round of this competition before edging past Chelsea with a 2-1 win. Georginio Rutter and Kaoru Mitoma were on target after Bart Verbruggen‘s inexplicable fifth-minute own goal.
Rutter also scored twice in the Norwich thumping, meaning he has been involved in six goals in his last three appearances in the FA Cup overall (4 goals, 2 assists). The former Leeds United forward will be expected to play a key part once more at St. James’ Park, where he assisted Danny Welbeck’s first-half strike earlier this season.
Welbeck heads into this clash after proving the difference with his late goal against Bournemouth as Brighton prepare for their third straight campaign in the FA Cup fifth round. They beat Stoke City in 2022-23 but lost to Wolves at this stage last season.
As for team news, Hürzeler will continue without Lewis Dunk, Joël Veltman, Jason Steele, Ferdi Kadioglu, James Milner and Igor Julio. Joelinton and Jamaal Lascelles are the only absentees for Howe.
Newcastle vs Brighton Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won just two of their last 15 meetings with Brighton in all competitions (D7 L6), with all of these coming in the Premier League.
As mentioned, Hürzeler’s side have already won 1-0 at St. James’ Park this term, and their FA Cup record against Newcastle is impressive.
Brighton have won each of their last four FA Cup games against Sunday’s hosts without conceding a single goal.
However, this is the first meeting since a 2-0 home win in the 2012-13 third round.
Newcastle vs Brighton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer leant towards a home win in 90 minutes – Newcastle triumphed in a convincing 51.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Brighton have dominated recently against Newcastle, however, and claimed victory in normal time across 23.7% of the same data-led sims.
The draw would send the tie to extra time, and possibly penalties, with that result forecast in 24.6%.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Brighton Prediction: FA Cup Fifth Round Opta Analyst.
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