Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at flat-track bullies Brentford, Crystal Palace’s tremendous away form, and top-half wobbles.
After the weekend’s Premier League action, it would have been easy to write about Liverpool’s win at Manchester City, Arsenal’s defeat to West Ham, or Mohamed Salah’s seemingly never-ending numbers.
In this week’s SVQ, though, we wanted to cast our gaze further down the table (besides, we’ve already covered Salah in depth on the Opta Analyst site here).
Brentford dismissed Leicester City on Friday with a swagger, but we noticed an interesting quirk of their form both home and away, which we’ll divulge to you, our fine subscribers.
Speaking of teams who are different propositions home and away, Crystal Palace have become a team who seem to look forward to their travels. Their latest away win set a record for them, and a rather specific achievement that no other team has ever managed in English football.
We have an Ask Opta question relating to a surprise outcome of the weekend’s action, and a quiz that includes a Salah question if you must quench that particular thirst.
Let’s get cracking.
If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.
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Brentford are an average team.
No wait, that isn’t meant to be an insult, we’re just saying that if you’re looking for the median average in Premier League quality, Brentford are probably it.
Their comprehensive 4-0 win at Leicester City on Friday was their 11th victory of the season, matching their 11 defeats (D4).
They sit in 11th place after 26 games, 20 points clear of relegation and just seven points off the top four, so Thomas Frank’s side can have every reason to be looking up rather than down.
This is hardly a revelation, but the Bees also generally do well against teams below them in the table and poorly against teams above them. Yes, fine, so do most teams, but it has been accentuated a bit more than usual for Brentford this season due to the order of their fixture list.
They had the best home record in the league after their first eight games at home, winning seven and drawing just one. However, they have not won at the Gtech Community Stadium since early December, losing four and drawing one of their last five there.
That said, six of those first eight home games were against teams currently in the bottom half of the Premier League, while four of their last five have been against teams in the top half, and the other was against an improving Tottenham. So it could be that their performances haven’t dipped, they’re just simply playing better opponents.
Interestingly, they haven’t kept a clean sheet at home this season in the Premier League, having kept five in away games.
And sure enough, their fortunes have almost been in reverse in those away games.
Brentford didn’t win any of their first nine away games in the league this season, losing seven of those. However, they have now won four on the spin after their ruthless dismantling of Leicester City on Friday.
When you look at the split again, though, it’s easier to see why that might be the case. Six of their first nine away games were against teams currently in the top half, and the three bottom-half sides weren’t exactly gimmes in the form of Tottenham, Everton and Manchester United.
Their last four wins on the road have all been against teams in the bottom half (Southampton, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Leicester).
It will therefore be interesting to see if they can keep this momentum up, with their next four away games being at Bournemouth, Newcastle, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest.
Brentford have played 12 games against teams currently in the top half, amassing just eight points (W2 D2 L8). Only Tottenham (7), Leicester (4) and Southampton (2) have won fewer.
They have played 14 games against teams in the bottom half, collecting 29 points (W9 D2 L3). Only Liverpool (38), Arsenal (37) and Nottingham Forest (34) have won more.
It perhaps doesn’t bode well for Brentford that only four of their remaining 12 games are against teams in the bottom half. In fact, after they host Everton on Wednesday, their next seven Premier League games are against top-half teams.
That will be a real test of their credentials.
VIZ – Eagles Fly Away
We’re staying on the theme of home and away form for a London-based Premier League side.
Crystal Palace have struggled at Selhurst Park this season, winning just two of their 13 home games in the Premier League (D5 L6). Only Ipswich and Southampton (both 1) have won fewer games on home soil.
However, they still sit comfortably away from the relegation zone in 13th place, largely due to their recent away form.
Similarly to Brentford on the road, Palace struggled to win earlier this season. They lost three of their first four away games (D1), but what few will have seen coming is that they have since gone on a run that would rival almost anyone, having not lost an away game in the league since October.
Palace’s 2-0 win at Fulham on Saturday made it four Premier League away wins in a row, and nine on the road unbeaten (W6 D3), including winning six of their last seven. Since the start of November, only leaders Liverpool have more away points (22) than Oliver Glasner’s side (21), but the Eagles have played one game fewer.
Palace have won four consecutive top-flight away games for the first time, while it’s also the first time they have ever won four consecutive away league games without conceding.
Across the whole season, only Liverpool (35), Arsenal (25) and Nottingham Forest (23) have more points from away games than Palace (22), which is particularly impressive when you consider they won just one point from their first four trips.
Another aspect of their recent away form has been clean sheets. No team have kept more away clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Palace (6, level with Liverpool), and it is their second-most in a single campaign in the competition, after keeping seven in 1994-95.
All six of those clean sheets have come in their last seven away games, with their only goal conceded in that run coming in the 3-1 win at rivals Brighton in mid-December, and that was a Marc Guéhi own goal, which is why it doesn’t appear on the xG conceded viz below.
As that viz shows, in their last seven away games in the league, Palace have faced 99 shots with an overall xG conceded of 6.3, but that Guéhi own goal aside, their goal has not been breached. Their average xG conceded per shot of 0.06 shows that they are largely limiting the opposition to low-quality chances.
If you’ve been paying attention to Palace’s results, you’ll also have noticed they have a clear fondness of winning 2-0. It is famously a dangerous scoreline, but seemingly more-so for whoever Palace’s hosts happen to be.
As well as winning their last four Premier League away games 2-0, they were also victors by the same score in their FA Cup fourth round victory at Doncaster Rovers, meaning they have won by that exact score in five consecutive away games in all competitions. It is the only run of 5+ consecutive 2-0 away wins by any side since the creation of the Football League in 1888.
Their next trip in the league is to Southampton, but after that they finish with visits to Man City, Newcastle, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool. They’ll do well to maintain this form, but equally, none of those teams will be relishing welcoming the Eagles to town.
QUIZ – Potter’s Gun Show, Rashford’s Home Comforts, and Salah’s Away Joys
How many will you get right? Feel free to lie and say you got all five because there isn’t a prize. Answers at the bottom of the page.
1. After their 2-2 draw with Man Utd on Saturday, Everton have now failed to win 22 Premier League games in which they’ve had a 2+ goal lead (D16 L6). Which current Premier League team are the only one to have failed to win more such games in the competition’s history?
2. West Ham boss Graham Potter became the second manager to beat Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium with three different clubs in all competitions (also with Östersunds FK and Brighton). Who is the only other manager to have done so?
3. Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson scored his first Premier League brace for Tottenham in their 4-1 win at Ipswich. How many Premier League goals does the Wales international now have this season?
4. Aston Villa’s Marcus Rashford has been directly involved in six goals (4 goals, 2 assists) in nine Premier League home games against Chelsea. Who are the only team he has more goals and assists in the competition in home games?
5. Mohamed Salah’s opener for Liverpool against Man City was his 16th away goal in the Premier League this season; equalling the record for most away goals in a single campaign in the competition alongside which two players?
Ask Opta
This week’s question came to us on X from Godin, who asks: “This week, as per last week’s table position, the teams in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th all lost. Has this ever happened before?”
Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to editors@theanalyst.com and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.
Answer:
It has felt like a season where anyone can beat anyone in the Premier League, and this weekend was no different.
As Godin rightly says, the five teams in positions 2nd-6th heading into Matchday 26 all lost. Arsenal were beaten by West Ham, Nottingham Forest lost a seven-goal thriller at Newcastle, Man City lost to Liverpool, 10-man Bournemouth were beaten by Wolves and Aston Villa came from behind to beat Chelsea.
And yes, it has happened before, but not for almost two decades.
The last time was on the weekend of 4-5 November 2006, when Chelsea (2nd) lost to Tottenham, Bolton Wanderers (3rd) lost to Wigan Athletic, Portsmouth (4th) were beaten by Man Utd, Arsenal (5th) coincidentally enough lost to West Ham, and Everton (6th) were bested by Fulham.
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1. After their 2-2 draw with Man Utd on Saturday, Everton have now failed to win 22 Premier League games in which they’ve had a 2+ goal lead (D16 L6). Which current Premier League team are the only one to have failed to win more such games in the competition’s history?
Southampton (25)
2. West Ham boss Graham Potter became the second manager to beat Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium with three different clubs in all competitions (also with Östersunds FK and Brighton). Who is the only other manager to have done so?
Carlo Ancelotti (Chelsea, Everton, Bayern Munich)
3. Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson scored his first Premier League brace for Tottenham in their 4-1 win at Ipswich. How many Premier League goals does the Wales international now have this season?
Nine, his most in a single campaign
4. Aston Villa’s Marcus Rashford has been directly involved in six goals (4 goals, 2 assists) in nine Premier League home games against Chelsea. Who are the only team he has more goals and assists in the competition in home games?
Arsenal (8 – 4 goals, 4 assists)
5. Mohamed Salah’s opener for Liverpool against Man City was his 16th away goal in the Premier League this season; equalling the record for most away goals in a single campaign in the competition alongside which two players?
Kevin Phillips in 1999-00 and Harry Kane in 2022-23
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