Can Les Bleus get back to winning ways against an Azzurri side full of confidence? Find out in our Italy vs France prediction and preview.
Giuseppe Garibaldi packed a remarkable amount into his 74 years, earning hero status in both Italy and France. His legacy lives on through warships, songs, biscuits, and even Nottingham Forest’s red kit, chosen in tribute to his troops.
More recently, his name has been attached to the annual Six Nations clash between Italy and France, a fixture officially named the Garibaldi Trophy since 2007.
Generally, France have had the upper hand in this clash, but there have been some memorable moments for the Azzurri. Wins in 2011 and 2013 as well as a draw last year all resonate vividly among fans and players alike.
France definitely ‘got away with one’ last year when Paolo Garbisi was denied by the post with a penalty attempt after the clock had ticked beyond 80 minutes and the score tied at 13-13.
Italy will be looking to go one better and continue their impressive form by securing a win at the Stadio Olimpico this weekend. The hosts have won their last two home games in the Championship and could secure three consecutive Six Nations home victories for the first time ever.
Les Bleus, meanwhile, need to arrest a losing run. Defeat to England in Round 2 destroyed any Grand Slam hopes, but they’ve not lost back-to-back games in the Six Nations since 2018-2019.
With a trip to Dublin looming in Round 4, Fabien Galthié’s side will be desperate to get back on track and keep the pressure on Ireland.
Strengths
France’s loss to England was a shock, with uncharacteristic handling errors proving costly against a determined, home-backed opposition. Despite that, Galthie’s men still remain the most miserly in defence (1.7 points conceded per 22 entry) and potent in attack (3.1 points scored per 22 entry), although their thrashing of Wales skews those numbers a little.
What has impressed has been their discipline. Romain Ntamack’s moment of madness aside, they have conceded just 11 penalties across the opening two rounds, the fewest of any side. Italy punished Wales heavily when they conceded penalties, so France must maintain their discipline to stay in control.
For Italy, defensive intensity has been a clear focus this year, something captain Michele Lamaro highlighted as a key performance indicator before the tournament. They lead the Six Nations in dominant tackles (40), well ahead of France, who have made the fewest (12). As a rate they are also ahead of the rest, with 9% of their tackles labelled as dominant.
Although Rory Darge tops the charts individually (6), four of the nine players to make 4+ dominant tackles so far play for Italy: Sebastian Negri (5), Danilo Fischetti (4), Giacomo Nicotera (4) and Tommaso Menoncello (4) are their enforcers on the pitch.
Weaknesses
Italy have been clinical with their handling in this Six Nations, making the fewest errors (14) of any side while France have made the most (31). That points to a clear vulnerability for the French, but there is also a weakness for Italy in there. They’ve made just five offloads in the competition, making them somewhat predictable in attack.
This emphasis on accuracy has also stunted Italy’s speed of attack. They have the best ruck success (99%) of any side, having lost just two of 135 attacking rucks so far, but they’ve averaged 4.4s per ruck. Only England have been slower. They’ve also committed more players per attacking ruck (2.6) than any other side, potentially limiting their ability to stretch defences.
Besides France’s obvious frailties in catching the ball against England, they also struggled to win it back having turned it over. Overall, only Wales (6) have won fewer turnovers than France (7) in the 2025 Six Nations and their only players to win a jackal are Gregory Alldritt (1) and Peato Mauvaka (1). Of their seven total turnovers won, three have come in the tackle from Louis Bielle-Biarrey, not the most likely source of pilfering that you’d imagine.
Fantasy Picks
Those seeking easy points in their backline are spoiled for choice with this fixture. Bielle-Biarrey is the Championship’s top try scorer, having already crossed the line four times, while Damian Penaud (37) needs just one more effort to equal the legendary Serge Blanco (38) as Les Bleus’ all-time top try scorer.
Full-backs Tommaso Allan (31) and Thomas Ramos (18) have scored the most points from place-kicks of any players, and with the former being listed as a fly-half option, the potential exists to have two freely-scoring 15s in your team.
However, the standout fantasy pick will likely be Antoine Dupont. The French scrum-half leads the tournament in try assists, with his hat-trick of setups against Wales in Round 1 making him the only player in Six Nations history with two assist hat-tricks (also four against Italy in Rome in 2020).
In the engine room, Italy’s Lorenzo Cannone (138) and France’s Gregory Alldritt (132) are the only two forwards to have gained 100+ metres so far. Cannone is also one of six players to have completed 30+ tackles so far, alongside teammates Giacomo Nicotera (31) and Negri (36), with the back-rower having also won four turnovers, second only to England’s Tom Curry (5).
Italy vs France Prediction
Despite Italy’s recent run of form in the Six Nations, the Opta supercomputer sees France as firm favourites for this game, giving Les Bleus an 88.4% chance of winning compared to the Azzurri’s 11.5%.
The Opta supercomputer expects France to increase their positive points difference in this year’s Six Nations by winning 36-13 in Rome on Sunday.
Italy vs France Lineups
Italy
15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 5 Federico Ruzza, 6 Sebastian Negri, 7 Michele Lamaro, 8 Lorenzo Cannone
Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosue Zilocchi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Jacopo Trulla
France
15 Leo Barre, 14 Theo Attissogbe, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Thomas Ramos, 9 Antoine Dupont, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 3 Uini Atonio, 4 Thibaud Flament, 5 Mickael Guillard, 6 Francois Cros, 7 Paul Boudehent, 8 Gregory Alldritt
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Alexandre Roumat, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Anthony Jelonch, 23 Maxime Lucu
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Italy vs France Six Nations 2025 Prediction and Preview Opta Analyst.
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