Despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope is set to fix its gaze on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month.
“Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good,“ he added, but explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.
Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40-90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.
NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1 percent, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032.
The last time an asteroid of greater than 30 meters in size posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 -- a possibility later ruled out by additional observations.
- Webb observations in March -
Data from the Webb telescope -- the most powerful space observatory -- will be key in better understanding its trajectory, said the Planetary Society's Betts.
If the risk rises over 10 percent, IAWN would issue a formal warning, leading to a “recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness,“ explained Moissl.
Its potential devastation comes less from its size and more from its velocity, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it hits.
But an impact crater cannot be ruled out if the size is closer to the higher end of estimates, said Betts.
The good news: there's ample time to act.
NASA's 2022 DART mission proved that spacecraft can successfully alter an asteroid's path, and scientists have theorized other methods, such as using lasers to create thrust by vaporizing part of the surface, pulling it off course with a spacecraft's gravity, or even using nuclear explosions as a last resort.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( 'City killer' asteroid now has 3.1% chance of hitting Earth: NASA )
Also on site :