The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, February 7, 2025, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT.
Adam had a preview posted earlier:
January non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Positive signs aboundGoldman Sachs non-farm payroll preview - the underlying labor market remains solid
The number in the right-most column is the 'prior' (previous month) result.The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points:
60,000 to 250,000
Unemployment rate:
4.0% to 4.5%0.1% to 0.4%
Average hourly earnings y/y:
2.7% to 3.9%Why is knowledge of such ranges important?
Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.
Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.
Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.
Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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