While we wait to see if the Chicago Cubs are going to do anything else this offseason, I thought we could take a quick look at how they stack up in the NL Central. Seeing as they are now projected to win the division in a relative landslide per PECOTA, I wanted to dig in a little deeper.
Keep in mind that this is hardly an exact science. To make it look pretty, I simply rolled with the presumed starter at each spot, not a collection of players/platoons, which makes more or less sense for certain spots on certain teams. So if you’re looking for the full Depth Charts for each team, check out this resource at FanGraphs – indeed, that’s what I used for the rotation and bullpen rankings. Otherwise, these individual starter projections are based on ZiPS.
First Base
Michael Busch (CHC): 111 OPS+, 3.3 WAR Spencer Horwitz (PIT): 118 OPS+, 2.6 WAR Willson Contreras (STL): 113 OPS+, 2.6 WAR Rhys Hoskins (MIL): 105 OPS+, 1.0 WAR Jeimer Candelario (CIN): 103 OPS+, 1.6 WARMichael Busch is entering his sophomore season with fairly big expectations. His defense improved dramatically as the season went on. And while his offense was up and down (not uncommon for a rookie, even an older one), we saw clear flashes of something much greater than a 111 OPS+. I think a final total in the range of 3.5-4.0 WAR is both reasonable and perfectly great. And that’s more than enough to be the most valuable overall first baseman in the NL Central.
Second Base
Nico Hoerner (CHC): 101 OPS+, 4.5 WAR Matt McLain (CIN): 112 OPS+, 3.6 WAR Nick Gonzales (PIT): 106 OPS+, 2.6 WAR Brendan Donovan (STL): 115 OPS+, 2.5 WAR Brice Turang (MIL): 88 OPS+, 2.5 WARNico Hoerner’s defense carries him here, as his projected OPS+ I higher than only Brice Turang’s in the NL Central. But second base defense is important and Hoerner is borderline (if not definitely) elite at the position. He’s also a very good base stealer and runner, so his lofty projection puts him as the clear favorite for best 2B in the NL Central.
Third Base
Nolan Arenado (STL): 106 OPS+, 2.9 WAR Matt Shaw (CHC): 100 OPS+, 2.3 WAR Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT): 86 OPS+, 1.8 WAR Oliver Dunn (MIL): 77 OPS+, 1.0 WAR Noelvi Marte (CIN): 78 OPS+, -0.1 WARWhile Matt Shaw’s future surely holds totals much higher than a league average bat and slightly better than average overall WAR totals, I would be perfectly happy with this outcome in 2025. Short of a surprise signing of Alex Bregman, Shaw is going to be a 23-year-old rookie. If he finished behind only Nolan Arenado as the best 3B in the NL Central, how could you not be thrilled? For what it’s worth, if the Cubs do sign Alex Bregman, his projected production (115 OPS+, 3.3 WAR) would give them another top starter at his position. As it stands, they have the second best projected starter in Shaw.
Shortstop
Elly De La Cruz (CIN): 116 OPS+, 4.8 WAR Dansby Swanson (CHC): 98 OPS+, 4.4 WAR Masyn Winn (STL): 94 OPS+, 2.9 WAR Joey Ortiz (MIL): 100 OPS+, 2.0 WAR Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT): 82 OPS+, 1.0 WARLike Hoerner at second base, Dansby Swanson derives most of his value from defense, but shortstop is a much weaker offensive position, so his projected 98 OPS+ is roughly second best in the division, as is his overall WAR total.
Left Field
Ian Happ (CHC): 116 OPS+, 3.6 WAR Jackson Chourio (MIL): 108 OPS+, 2.6 WAR Bryan Reynolds (PIT): 115 OPS+, 2.4 WAR Lars Nootbaar (STL): 116 OPS+, 2.3 WAR Spencer Steer (CIN): 108 OPS+, 1.8 WARIan Happ was recently crowned the third-best left fielder in MLB behind only Yordan Alvarez and Jarren Duran, which makes his place as the best in the NL Central easy to guess. He is tied for the best projected OPS+ and is a 3x Gold Glover.
Center Field
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 97 OPS+, 3.5 WAR Oneil Cruz (PIT): 114 OPS+, 2.9 WAR Garrett Mitchell (MIL): 106 OPS+, 1.6 WAR TJ Friedl (CIN): 95 OPS+, 1.6 WAR Victor Scott II (STL): 68 OPS+, 0.7 WARWell, this is fun! Pete Crow-Armstrong projects to be the most valuable starting center fielder in the NL Central this season, ahead of some other promising young players in the division. Obviously, the vast majority of his value is derived from defense and base running, but he has a legitimate shot to be the SINGLE best defensive player in baseball this year. So … that counts for something. And as we saw from July on last season, his offensive ceiling is actually quite high.
Right Field
Kyle Tucker (CHC): 129 OPS+, 3.7 WAR Sal Frelick (MIL): 98 OPS+, 2.2 WAR Joshua Palacios (PIT): 104 OPS+, 0.9 WAR Jake Fraley (CIN): 94 OPS+, 0.7 WAR Jordan Walker (STL): 99 OPS+, 0.5 WARAlthough Kyle Tucker’s WAR projection via ZiPS isn’t blindingly high, I feel confident saying he’s the best overall player in the division. So, yes, he’s the best right fielder. No discussion needed.
Designated Hitter:
Seiya Suzuki (CHC): 127 OPS+, 3.3 WAR Christian Yelich (MIL): 119 OPS+, 2.3 WAR Alec Burleson (STL): 110 OPS+, 2.0 WAR “Candelnacion-Stephly” (CIN): 1.4 WAR Andrew McCutchen (PIT): 93 OPS+, 0.4 WARSeiya Suzuki is one of the best hitters in the division, but is blocked from both corner outfield spots by better defenders. So ZiPS sticks him at DH, where his bat helps him run away with the highest overall projected WAR total by a full win.
Catcher:
William Contreras (MIL): 122 OPS+, 4.2 WAR Tyler Stephenson (CIN): 107 OPS+, 2.3 WAR Ivan Herrera (STL): 103 OPS+, 1.9 WAR Miguel Amaya (CHC): 91 OPS+, 1.2 WAR Joey Bart (PIT): 96 OPS+, 1.1 WARCatcher is a little more difficult to break down the way we have every other spot, as it is a more dedicated time-share position (as it will be with the Cubs and Miguel Amaya/Carson Kelly). But to keep things simple, I went with the projected “starter” for each team via ZiPS. That leaves Miguel Amaya with a much better year than last year, but overall just the fourth-best starter in the division. That said, this is the ONLY spot on the field in which the Cubs don’t employ the first or second-best projected starter. Pretty cool.
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And here’s where things change. Instead of rolling with ZiPS for the starting rotation and the bullpen, I used Depth Charts, which projects the overall positional group for all expected contributors as a group. And unsurprisingly, the Cubs come up short in both respects, though the differences are relatively small.
Starting Rotation
PIT: 13.2 WAR CIN: 13.0 WAR MIL: 12.0 WAR STL: 11.5 WAR CHC: 11.3 WARBullpen:
MIL: 3.2 WAR PIT: 2.5 WAR STL: 2.5 WAR CHC: 2.2 WAR CIN: 1.3 WARPerhaps this is why the Cubs are still hanging around the trade (Michael King? Dylan Cease? Robert Suarez?) and free-agent (David Robertson?) markets for improvements. If Jed Hoyer makes significant-enough additions here before the start of the season, the Cubs could move up the ranks. If he stops short, he’ll be hoping his relative depth for each positional group will make up for the lack of impact-talent.
So to recap, here’s where the Cubs expected starter ranks in projected WAR at each position/group around the diamond in the NL Central.
First base: 1st Second base: 1st Third base: 2nd Shortstop: 2nd Left Field: 1st Center Field: 1st Right Field: 1st DH: 1st Catcher: 4th Rotation: 5th Bullpen: 4th Read More Details
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