Israel’s Prime Minister will become the first foreign leader to visit the White House under Trump in a high-stakes summit that will cover the second stage of the ceasefire, normalisation with Saudi Arabia, and plans to forcibly transfer the population of Gaza abroad.
Military action against Iran
Central to Netanyahu’s demands will be action against regional rival Iran in return for maintaining the ceasefire.
“Iran is going to be heavily discussed, particularly what to do about Iran’s nuclear programme,” he said. “Netanyahu does not want Iran to keep advancing towards a nuclear weapon and he’s got a friendly and receptive audience in the White House for more aggressive actions to take out Iran’s programme. I suspect joint military action is going to be discussed.”
Netanyahu faces pressure from his right-wing coalition to end a temporary truce with Hama (Photo: Tom Brenner/Reuters)“Netanyahu’s preference is for a joint action with the US that would be crippling,” said Katzman. “Israel could do significant damage but only the US could destroy Iranian facilities for a long period of time and cripple the program.
Josh Paul, a former US State Department official and now co-director of A New Policy, a think-tank focused on US Middle East policy, said he expected Netanyahu to leverage the ceasefire to secure “a commitment [from the US] to cooperate with Israel on future military strikes on Iran”.
Iran’s key nuclear sites (Photo: The i Paper)Israeli officials have openly advocated further strikes on Iran following an exchange of fire last year that reportedly damaged Iran’s air defences. Netanyahu has also vowed to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Trump was asked in January about the prospect of a joint strike on Iranian nuclear sites – having previously indicated support for an Israeli attack – and appeared to leave both diplomatic and military options open.
How could the US support an Israeli attack on Iran?
Bombs. Only the US is known to possess the 14-tonne bunker busters capable of penetrating Iranian nuclear sites deep underground. Clearing a path. Washington could persuade allies in the region to allow the use of their airspace for raids, whereas Israel could not. Refuelling. Specialised US aircraft could allow Israeli jets to refuel on journeys of more than 1,000km between Israel and Iran. Intelligence. The US and Israel are closely aligned on the continued surveillance assessments of sensitive Iranian military sites. Defence. As with previous Iranian strikes on Israel, the US would help to offer an air defence shield against potential retaliation.Israel would require US participation in an attack to be effective, said Dr Andreas Krieg, a Middle East specialist at the School of Security Studies, King’s College London.
But Krieg suggests that prospect was unlikely in the short term, because the Trump administration would first look at “ways to contain and degrade Iran…at low cost,” with Gulf allies favouring “engagement over escalation”.
The Israeli leader expects “the advancement of the agreement with Saudi Arabia, and perhaps even a promise related to the Iranian nuclear project,” stated public broadcaster, Kann News, citing official sources.
Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said the administration was determined to press ahead with the ceasefire agreement, and raised the prospect that this could lead to an expansion of the Abraham Accords of Trump’s first term – which normalised relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan – to include Saudi Arabia.
A Palestinian boy carries a plastic bag with bread in Gaza City (Photo: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)
The far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday he had told US officials any deal leading to a Palestinian state was unacceptable.
Riyadh might have been more flexible over this demand before the war in Gaza but Katzman believes its position has hardened over the heavy Palestinian death toll. “The price went up … because of Israel’s tactics in the war,” he said.
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Trump could offer further inducements to Netanyhau to stick with the deal, suggested Paul, such as protection against indictments from the International Criminal Court (ICC), and commitments to Israel on military aid, he added.
Paul expects the meeting to cover Trump’s suggestion of transferring the population of Gaza to neighbouring countries during postwar reconstruction, naming Egypt and Jordan as potential destinations and urging their leaders to accept refugees.
“I think there’s plenty of reason to be concerned about that despite the very clear and explicit pushback from Arab leaders,” said Paul.
Second stage of the ceasefire with Hamas
Israel confirmed on Tuesday it will send negotiators to Qatar for mediated talks with Hamas over the second phase of the ceasefire this weekend, after Monday’s deadline for the resumption of talks passed, with the first phase expiring at the end of the month.
Netanyahu is under pressure from hardline members of his coalition to abandon the ceasefire. Smotrich claims the prime minister has promised to resume the war after phase one.
Relatives of hostages thank President Donald Trump over the release of captives from Gaza and call for the multi-phase deal to continue (Photo: Antonio Denti/Reuters)“Entering the first phase of the agreement was hard between two entities that do not trust each other at all,” he said, referring to Israel and Hamas. “Going into the second phase will be even more difficult as it would require the full withdrawal of the Israel Defence Force (IDF).
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“Mr President, you are our hope for those that are still in captivity,” said Aviva Siegel, wife of recently freed US-Israeli national Kieth Siegel, in a statement from the group. “Our hope rests with you to make sure the next stages happen and all hostages return home.”
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