Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to President Trump’s tariffs on his country the … [+] same day with counter-tariffs on America. (Photo by EuropaNewswire/Gado/Getty Images)
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In a move that experts warn could upend decades of cross-border labour mobility, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on February 1, 2025, imposing sweeping tariffs. Under the U.S. order, most Canadian goods will face a 25 percent tariff—except energy products, which will be taxed at a reduced rate of 10 percent. The U.S. has announced similar measures against Mexico, where a 25 percent tariff has been announced, and against China, where a new 10 percent tariff has been implemented. These moves signalled a dramatic shift in U.S. trade policy and, in particular, may have far-reaching implications for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the future of those with work visas under that agreement across North America.
Canadian Response And The USMCA Risk
In response to the U.S. action, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau immediately announced a series of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. Speaking at a press conference in Ottawa, Trudeau declared that Canada would target American goods valued at approximately $155 billion, imposing an immediate $30 billion in tariffs, with an additional $125 billion scheduled to take effect within 21 days. Alongside these tariffs, the Canadian government unveiled non-tariff measures—including restrictions on procurement involving American bidders and a “buy Canadian” policy. Similar measures were announced by some Canadian provincial premiers who declared they would stop imports from the U.S., such as alcohol from “red states” and orange juice from Florida, for example.
Trudeau characterized these actions as necessary countermeasures to what he described as “an aggressive unilateral move by the United States,” positioning the tariffs not merely as economic instruments but as a political protest. Pointing out that the illicit entry of undocumented migrants from Canada and fentanyl imports from Canada amount to less than 1 percent of such entries and imports to the United States, Trudeau expressed surprise at these stated reasons for the U.S. actions. Indeed, an added concern Canada could raise is the illicit importation of U.S. firearms smuggled northward into Canada. In short, U.S. statistics suggest there is room for America to do more homework on these problems before blaming them on other countries.
USMCA and Immigration Visa Uncertainty
Trump’s executive order included a stern warning for Canada not to retaliate, a statement that could be a prelude to abrogating the USMCA. The escalating trade dispute could lead to a particularly alarming and unforeseen development: the potential cancellation of work visas held by Canadians and Mexicans under the USMCA. If Trump rescinds the agreement, it could cancel all Canadian work visas for professionals in the United States—specifically those under the TN, E, and L-1 categories. Equally, Mexican work visas could be cancelled, and American professionals working in Canada or Mexico under the same framework could also find their visas void. Decades of economic integration and labour mobility, hallmarks of the USMCA, now hang in the balance. The uncertainty could cast a long shadow over countless families, businesses, and communities between the two nations. The intersection of trade policy and immigration is now more than ever a critical flash point in the ongoing dispute.
Broader Implications Amid USMCA Trade Tensions
As both nations implement these aggressive tariff measures, the coming weeks promise to be a period of high-stakes negotiations and significant economic uncertainty. The potential dismantling of the USMCA work visa program would have profound consequences—not just for the economies of the United States and Canada, but for the everyday lives of countless families whose livelihoods depend on the ease of cross-border employment. The stakes are enormous, with the potential collapse of the USMCA visa framework threatening to disrupt not only the economies of the countries but the lives, livelihoods, and the long-established economic bond between the United States and Canada, not to mention Mexico and the implications for other countries dealing with the United States including China.
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