The EURUSD found support near its 100 hour MA for the 3rd day in a row. That keeps the buyers in play and control in the short term, but buyers still need to show that they can keep control. Staying above the 200 hour MA at 1.0392 would the best case scenario, but if the price can still remain above the 100 hour MA at 1.02777, they are still in the game, but it is a battle. PS EU CPI came in as expected.
The GBPUSD has been misbehaving technically, but sellers remain the dominant despite the rally on Wednesday (off US CPI). The high this week could only get briefly above the 38.2% of the January trading range on Wednesday at 1.22808. Since then the high yesterday could only reach 1.2259. Today the high was within a swing area between 1.2238 and 1.2250 (close resistance today). The price is below the 100 hour MA at 1.22053. Can sellers keep the price below that level? in the US session and set the stage for a retest of the lows for the year and going back to Nonvember 2023? Watch those levels. PS UK retail sales were weaker than expected today.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to future rate cuts, stating that monetary policy remains only moderately restrictive despite significant progress on inflation. She noted that restrictive policy is still necessary to address lingering inflationary pressures and the rate-of-change problem. Hammack said she supported a 75 bps rate cut for 2024 as of September(they did 100 for the year) but she did not support the 25 cut in December (dissenting) saying “The data had all come in stronger” and “Just because something’s priced into the market, to me, is an insufficient reason to do it”. She acknowledged that tariffs could complicate the inflation outlook further.
iN other central bank commentary:
ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras highlighted the need for continued rate cuts in upcoming meetings, advocating for a gradual and cautious approach based on available data. He noted that larger rate cuts could be considered if warranted by incoming data. Stournaras expressed confidence in the latest forecasts, which project inflation reaching the 2% target sustainably by Q2 2025.ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel urged a more cautious approach to rate cuts, citing significant uncertainty in the inflation outlook. He emphasized the importance of not rushing decisions during the process of monetary policy normalization but remained open to discussing a larger rate cut in December as part of the broader strategy.In other markets to start the new day:
Crude oil is near unchanged at $77.79Gold is down -$3.10 or -0.12% at $2710SIlver is down -$0.37 or -1.20% at $30.40Bitcoin is running higher and back above $100K at $102,853German Dax +1.01%France's CAC +1.01%UK FTSE 100, +1.38%Spain Ibex +0.58%Italy's FTSE MIB +1.15%
US stock futures are implying higher levels
Nasdaq up 123 pointsS&P up 24.56 pointsDow up 177 points2 year yield 4.227%, down 1.0 bps5 year 4.375%, -2.5 bps10 year 4.570%, -3.6 bps30 year 4.800%, -4.3 bps
The 10 year yield peaked at 4.809% this week.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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