Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jan: Feds Waller more dovish. Retail sales solid. ...Middle East

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A down day for the major US indicesBiden Administration does not plan to take action on TikTok on SundayCrude oil settled at $78.68Fed's Goolsbee: Has grown less concerned about labor market slowdownBOC Granvelle:A Trump tariff on exports would have big negative impact on economic growthThe World Bank forecasts global growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2024Atlanta Fed GDP now Growth estimate for Q4 rises to 3% from 2.7% lastPres Elect Trump considering executive order to circumvent the TikTok banEuropean indices closes day mostly higher. France's CAC outperforms. Spain's Ibex doesn't.Tr Sec. nominee Bessent:Will revive American economy through progrowth regulatory policiesFed Waller: December inflation data was very goodNAHB price index for December 47 versus 45 estimateUS business inventories for November +0.1% versus 0.1% estimateKickstart the FX trading day for Jan 16 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSDPhiladelphia Fed manufacturing index for January 44.3 versus -5.2 estimateUS December retail sales 0.4% versus 0.6% estimate.Control group versus 0.7% estimate 0.4%US December import prices MoM 0.1% vs 0.1% expectedUS initial jobless claims 217K vs 210K expectedForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar mixed ahead of more US data to come

In other data releases in the US session

Initial jobless claims were higher than expectations to 217K vs 210K est. HOwever, the 4-week MA did dip slightly to 212.75k. Continuing claims did come in lower than expectations at 1.859M underscoring an employment picture that remains on solid grpundPhilly Fed Manufacturing index rose sharply to 44.3 from -10.0 last month and much higher than the -5 est. You have to wonder if pre-planning for tariffs and/or a more favorable business environment led to the gain. The 6 month forward index also increased from 46 from 33 last month indicative of increased business confidence in the region.THe NAHB home price data was steady to slightly higher than expected at 47 vs 45, and the business inventories came in as expected.

Waller acknowledged the potential for surprises, similar to last year, that could delay rate cuts but remains optimistic about disinflation progressing toward the target. He also highlighted that the strong jobs report was a rebound from earlier weaker data, and while the labor market is solid, it is not overheating. On tariffs, Waller stated they are unlikely to cause significant inflationary effects. He concluded by stating he might be more optimistic than some of his colleagues at the Fed regarding inflation trends aligning with the target.

US stocks were not all that encouraged with the 3 major indices closing lower on the day. The Nasdaq was the hardest hit with Apple losing 4% on reports that it lost it's top selling spot in China due to slower to adopt AI in their cell phones.

Dow fell -0.16%S&P fell -0.21% and Nasdaq fell -0.89%

Gold added to it's gains with a rise of $18 or 0.68% to $2714. The price is up for the third day in a row after tumbling -$27 on Monday. Since than the price has risen $51.

The USD is closing mixed vs the major currency pairs today. The greenback was the strongest vs the CAD (+0.36%) and the weakest vs the JP)Y (-0.85%). The other changes showed modest gains or losses from 0.03% to 0.22%.

EUR, -0.12%JPY, -0.85%GBP +0.04%CHF -0.24%CAD +0.37%AUD +0.27%NZD +0.16% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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