This is not the Donald Trump Israel expected ...Middle East

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They argued that although President Joe Biden had been slavishly supportive of Israel’s war effort in Gaza, Lebanon and against Syria and Iran, a Trump administration might give even greater military and political backing to Israel.

It appeared possible that Trump might not oppose the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt, the annexation of the West Bank and, in the not-too-distant future, a US-backed Israeli attack on Iran to destroy its nuclear facilities and seek regime change.

Gaza may be in ruins, but a battered Hamas is still in business. Palestinians will be able to return to north Gaza. Much increased aid will end what looks like a sustained Israeli bid to starve the Palestinians into submission.

War hawks in Israel are beginning to suspect that the second Trump presidency may not be as beneficial for them as they had hoped a few weeks back.

He said he had been mistaken in assuming that it was Ukraine that was going to pay a price for Trump’s election victory: “It could be that we [Israel] are the first to pay the price of Trump’s election,” he said.

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Israeli expectations of Trump may always have been too high, but all the signs so far are that they are not going to get the sort of unconditional support from the US that they were expecting, possibly less than they got under Biden.

For him, Israel is not the only game in town. He wants a security pact with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies. He cannot get this while the war in Gaza goes on, or if Israel is annexing the West Bank. Trump will want to start his administration with a success for which he will get credit rather than Biden.

In announcing the impending agreement, Biden rather pathetically claimed ownership of it. But it has hung fire for eight months because Netanyahu had learned that it was safe to defy Biden without him diminishing the supply of US weapons and political support without which Israel could not have continued the war.

This does not mean that he will be anything like an impartial mediator between Israel and the Palestinians, but he will not be a pushover for Netanyahu as Biden had proved to be. On the contrary, Trump cannot afford for his Maga approach to foreign powers to be exposed as a paper tiger by Israel or anybody else.

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