During a press conference on Tuesday at his at Mar-a-Lago home, the President-elect said that all Nato allies should increase their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. The current target is 2 per cent, which not all allies meet.
In the press conference, during which Trump threatened Denmark, proposed that Canada become America’s 51st state, and said the US should take back the Panama Canal, it is reasonable that comments about the defence spending of allies get overlooked. But his rhetoric on Nato has historically caused allies to change policy, so his latest demands could have a real-world impact.
President-elect Donald Trump has worried allies with his rhetoric on Nato (Photo: Allison Robbert/Pool Photo via AP)It is true that after Trump criticised allies’ frugality, some raised their levels of defence spending. In 2014, only three met the 2 per cent target, compared with nine in 2020, the final year of his first term. That number has since jumped to 23 out of the now 32 members. However, the most dramatic increase in spending came in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, not Trump’s demands.
Trump meets Mark Rutte, now the secretary-general of Nato, in the Oval Office of the White House in 2019 (Photo: Alex Brandon/ AP)
A sudden spending rise could be a headache for Nato
Exactly what Trump expects to happen if all 32 allies increase their defence budgets to 5 per cent of GDP is also unclear. Nato officials would obviously be delighted if everyone announced that they were willing to spend more, but would doubtless have some questions, chiefly: what on earth will they spend all that cash on?
Critics of the current definition already accuse allies, including the UK, of padding their defence budget to meet the 2 per cent target. If that number jumps to 5 per cent, there is a risk allies scramble desperately to meet the demand.
As one Nato official said: “If it was 5 per cent tomorrow we’d flood the market without getting much back.”
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Read MoreThe numbers back Trump’s claims and European leaders know it. Nato’s own website says: “The combined wealth of the non-US Allies, measured in GDP, is almost equal to that of the United States. However, non-US Allies together spend less than half of what the United States spends on defence.”
How seriously should we take Trump’s threats?
Trump might know that an increase of 5 per cent is not only difficult but largely pointless. Most European officials think his threats are the starting point for a negotiation. However, that does not mean Trump is not serious about pulling away from the alliance.
So, while his claims might be radical and far-fetched, they could have real consequences. And as ever with Trump, those consequences might well lead to international chaos.
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