Welcome to 2025, the year the Chicago Cubs don’t win exactly 83 games. You can write it down now. The Cubs will win more or less than 83 games this year. I guarantee it.
Probably.
Using the new year flip as a check-in point, MLBTR looked at offseason free agent spending so far across the league, which is actually pretty interesting to reframe how it has “felt.” This is just free agent spending – so no extensions, no trades – and obviously the biggest deals are skewing the top. So I don’t find it especially interesting to see the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, and Diamondbacks at the top. The more interesting things, to me, include the Orioles (maligned for not spending) showing up at number 8 despite not signing any huge names (Tyler O’Neill, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sanchez), the A’s showing up at number 9 (mostly because of Luis Severino), and the Cubs at 13th or possibly 12th, depending on how much Caleb Thielbar got. It didn’t take a lot – Matthew Boyd at a $29 million guarantee, and Carson Kelly at an $11.5 million guarantee – to get the Cubs in the top half of the league of spending so far. That’s … kinda sad? At the bottom of the list, you find that there are still EIGHT clubs that have signed zero big league free agents so far, or have signed only split deal guys (which are closer to minor league signings than full big league signings): Braves, Marlins, Brewers (Grant Wolfram likely a split deal), Royals, Twins, Padres, Mariners, Cardinals. What an interesting mix of teams, some of which will assuredly be making signings before the offseason is up, but some others that are clearly trying to take it easy financially. Speaking of those teams’ finances, the Brewers likely just got a near-term boost in available cash:#Brewers pivot for 2025, move TV broadcasts to FanDuel Sports Network The Brewers had previously arranged to have MLB Media broadcast its games for 2025. One big change, however: You can now subscribe on Amazon Prime. www.jsonline.com/story/sports…[image or embed]
— Steve Drumwright (@drummerwrites.bsky.social) December 31, 2024 at 5:11 PM The Brewers were originally NOT one of the former Bally clubs that was moving over to the new FanDuel Sports Network, which grew out of Diamond Sports’ bankruptcy. Instead, the Brewers were going to be like the Padres and Diamondbacks had been, with their games produced and sold by MLB, via a combination of direct streaming subscriptions and local cable/over-the-air sales. Now, instead, the Brewers join the Tigers, Marlins, Royals, Cardinals, Braves, Rays, and Angels at FanDuel Sports Network (the Reds had originally been in the announcement, but have since parted ways with FanDuel Sports Network and are going on their own). This will provide the Brewers with some near-term certainty on their TV money, though it’s going to be a haircut from their previous deal, and it sounds like this arrangement, for now, is for the 2025 season only. Having the ability to subscribe via Amazon – it’s an add-on, extra subscription – is going to help with overall access, at least. The MLB.com crew provides one new year’s prediction for each club, and it’s a bold one for the Cubs, even if they rightly note that it SHOULDN’T be that bold:“Cubs: Chicago will win first playoff game since 2017
This really should not be that bold of a prediction, but the Cubs were also hoping to be playing on the October stage in both 2023 and ‘24. They narrowly missed the postseason two years ago and fell short of expectations again last season. In Spring Training last year, Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts said, “I don’t see any reason why we wouldn’t be favored for our division.” Chicago finished 10 games behind the division-winning Brewers and six games short of the final Wild Card spot. With star outfielder Kyle Tucker in the fold now, plus some upgrades throughout the roster, the Cubs look more like a team that can snap its playoff win drought.”
Doing so might require winning the NL Central, thanks to the continued infusion of talent into the National League and the increasingly crowded Wild Card picture. Winning the Central might be tough if all the other predictions come true: Christian Yelich wins the NL Comeback Player of the Year, the Cardinals surprisingly wind up competing in a rebuilding year, Oneil Cruz goes 30-30, and Elly De La Cruz wins NL MVP.ELSEWHERE AT BN: Check Out BN Fantasy | Subscribe to The BN Newsletter
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