In 2025, it will shape up to be:
Jerome Powell (Fed chair)John Williams (Fed vice chair, New York Fed)Michael Barr (Board of Governors)Michelle Bowman (Board of Governors)Lisa Cook (Board of Governors)Philip Jefferson (Board of Governors)Adriana Kugler (Board of Governors)Christopher Waller (Board of Governors)Susan Collins (Boston Fed)Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed)Alberto Musalem (St Louis Fed)Among those voting next year, it will be the first time for Schmid and Musalem. As for Collins, she was last a voting member back in 2022. And Goolsbee was last a voting member back in 2023.
The current outlook is that the Fed is likely to hold a more hawkish tone going into next year. That especially as reflected by the latest dot plots and the fact that they will look to pause in January to start with.
Meanwhile, Bostic, Barkin, and Daly may be regarded as more centrists but with a slight skew towards siding with what the main stance is for the Fed. And in this case, it is leaning more towards where Powell is standing I would say.
There's talk of the voting committee being increasingly more hawkish next year but amid the changes, it's hard to see that outright being the base case scenario.
We did move away from focusing on inflation to labour market data but expect next year to be a bit of a balance of both. That especially as price pressures look to be stalling or at least taking a bumpier path in approaching 2%. And not to mention the threat of Trump's tariffs and tax cuts as well.
So, those will be the more important focus points as we look towards next year as opposed to who's who on the voting board considering the rotation above.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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