Averages of all major opinion polls compiled by Sir John Curtice show that Labour’s popularity has significantly fallen over the course of 2024 despite the party’s landslide general election victory.
All the gains from Labour’s declining position appear to have accrued to smaller parties, in particular Reform which has seen its popularity increase since the election in July.
He concluded: “Britain’s traditional system of two-party politics now seemingly faces its biggest threat since the foundation of the SDP in 1981.”
Reform’s popularity was gradually rising but its vote share never exceeded 12 per cent, only just ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
Following the actual result, which revealed that just 35 per cent of voters had backed Labour despite the party taking nearly two-thirds of Commons seats – with the Tories on 24 per cent and Reform third with 15 per cent – most experts concluded that the opinion polls had overstated support for Sir Keir Starmer‘s party.
Labour has been beset by problems in its first months in government. Starmer was forced to axe his high-profile and controversial chief of staff Sue Gray following a series of leaks about tensions in Whitehall, culminating in the revelation she earned more than the Prime Minister.
On Thursday the Bank of England suggested the uncertainty over whether this will result in lower wages or higher prices is hampering its planning for interest rates cuts.
Nigel Farage and Reform treasurer Nick Candy met with Elon Musk this week. Musk’s support for Farage could prove a headache for Keir Starmer (Photo: Stuart Mitchell/Reform UK/PA Wire)Meanwhile the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, has taken against Labour, criticising policies on his X social media platform and meeting with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and hinting he may donate as much as $100m to his party.
Curtice said: “Although the year saw Labour return to power for the first time in 14 years, it did so on just 35 per cent of the vote, the lowest share for any majority government in Britain’s psephological history.
Voters deserting Labour and Tories for smaller parties, election analysis shows
Read More“Meanwhile, 2024 has been the year in which Reform has burst on the political scene – recording a notable increase in support in the months leading up to the election, significant progress during the election campaign, and then a further advance since. As a result, Britain’s traditional system of two-party politics now seemingly faces its biggest threat since the foundation of the SDP in 1981 – and all eyes will be on how Reform fares in 2025.”
The Tories have struggled to reach 30 per cent since Liz Truss‘s short-lived premiership in 2022 set off a dramatic slide in the party’s popularity.
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