Reforms announced in 2023 under the Tories showed a planned welfare squeeze would save around £3.4bn by 2028-29.
The calculation leaves the Chancellor with a much bigger financial hole to plug than previously estimated with no detail yet revealed as to how the savings will be made.
At the time it was estimated the policy would withdraw welfare eligibility for around 400,000 people who currently receive out of work sickness benefits.
Treasury documents accompanying the Chancellor’s Budget revealed the five-year forecast, now stretching to 2029/30, increases the expected savings to £5.4bn. This is due to a calculated saving of £2bn in the final year of the forecast.
The Centre for Social Justice think tank, set up in 2004 by former Tory work and pensions secretary Sir Iain Duncan Smith, has long been calling for reform of incapacity benefits.
Devolution of job centre support is something that has been started in the recent “Get Britain Working” white paper, unveiled by Kendall last month, but the CSJ argues spending power should be moved away from Whitehall to the regions for it to be genuinely effective.
Unemployment plans unveiled by Kendall eyed up those signed off work with long-term health conditions and hinted strict benefit assessments could be softened.
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Read MoreThe Government’s “Get Britain Working Again” white paper has said it would address the 2.8 million people out of work due to long-term sickness through health support and Jobcentre reform.
The CSJ is also calling for the Department of Work and Pensions to bring forward the review of sickness and disability benefits for publication in the early new year rather than Spring, when it is expected.
“But there is chance it can avert this by ‘going Dutch’ and radically devolving employment support to get Britain back to work, following the example of the Netherlands where this has helped to cut economic inactivity by three times the rate of the UK.”
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