This promises to be one of the most insightful postseasons in recent college football history. The 12-team College Football Playoff is here and it has already changed everything. How much more change will the next month of football bring about? The Playoff has its own set of questions to answer, but its impact on the non-CFP bowl season might be profound. How many teams show up? How many fanbases show out? With the transfer portal currently open and players forced to make decisions now, everything is in limbo. Rosters are uncertain. Coaches are being forced to split their time between game prep and portal recruiting.
Including the 12 teams that made the CFP, 84 programs are participating in the postseason. There will be 4 first-round CFP games, 4 quarterfinal CFP games, 2 semifinal games, a national championship, and 36 non-CFP bowl games over the next month.
We’ll pick the CFP games later in the week. Here are picks for every bowl game.
Frisco Bowl: No. 25 Memphis vs. West Virginia (Dec. 17)
Memphis has a top-20 scoring offense (35.2 PPG), a run game that ranks 21st in EPA per attempt, and a senior quarterback with 13,984 career passing yards. I believe the Tigers have an advantage when they hold the football, and the tendency for WVU quarterback Garrett Greene to be careless (21 sacks, 11 interceptions) might give the Tigers an edge in field position as well.
PICK: Memphis -4.5 (-110 via ESPN Bet)
Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (Dec. 18)
Western Kentucky has gotten absolutely hammered by transfer portal entries — particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. The Hilltoppers are coming off a 52-12 rout at the hands of Jacksonville State in the CUSA conference title game where they gave up 386 rushing yards and 5 scores. James Madison was one of the better statistical teams in the country this season, ranking 13th nationally in Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric. They run the ball well enough and have a stout defense.
PICK: James Madison -6.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
LA Bowl: Cal vs. No. 24 UNLV (Dec. 18)
UNLV will be without its head coach — Barry Odom left to take the Purdue job — but Cal will be without its starting quarterback. Fernando Mendoza is in the transfer portal. Cal also lost its top receiver to the portal. The offensive line is banged up and Mendoza’s backup got hurt in the season finale. UNLV was the more successful team throughout the regular season, and I think it’s in a better spot here to have a positive bowl showing. The Rebels stop the run with the best of them and have a dynamic ground game to lean on.
PICK: UNLV +1.5 (-118 via FanDuel)
New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston (Dec. 19)
Sam Houston has seen a bevy of players hit the transfer portal in the wake of their head coach’s departure, but a number of them have said they plan to play in the bowl game. This is the school’s first bowl appearance since jumping to the FBS, so motivation doesn’t seem to be lacking. Georgia Southern is just better. The Eagles won 6 of their final 8 games, which included victories over Marshall, James Madison, and South Alabama.
PICK: Georgia Southern -5.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Cure Bowl: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State (Dec. 20)
Ohio won its first conference title since 1968 with a 38-3 stomping of Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats closed as a 2.5-point dog, but looked like a vastly superior team on the field. They ran for 232 yards while limiting Miami to 62, they threw for 235 yards and 2 scores while limiting Miami to 127 and a pick, and they ran up 32 first downs while allowing only 11. Quarterback Parker Navarro has been excellent to close out the season, doing it with his legs and his arm. Ohio has one of the better run defenses in the FBS, so Jacksonville State will find it hard to replicate the field day it had on the ground when it last took the field. The Gamecocks have also seen both starting corners, both starting safeties, and their best edge player hit the portal.
PICK: Ohio -3 (-115 via DraftKings)
Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane vs. Florida (Dec. 20)
Tulane has been good about limiting the explosive pass plays this season, and DJ Lagway desperately wants to push the ball downfield. Tulane has also been exceptional when putting the ball in the air itself. How much of that changes in the absence of Darian Mensah? Tulane’s starting quarterback hit the transfer portal. Ty Thompson (who is also going into the portal) will start and despite his age, he’s still unseasoned. Florida has SEC size and athleticism, the likes of which Tulane has not seen all year. And the Green Wave have not done well when they’ve stepped up in class.
PICK: Florida -13.5 (-115 via ESPN Bet)
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA (Dec. 23)
A theme you’ll find here… Coastal Carolina has seen a number of key starters opt for the transfer portal, including quarterback Ethan Vasko. The Roadrunners won 3 of their final 4 games, with their lone loss coming against eventual AAC champ Army. The Chanticleers lost 5 of their final 7. UTSA has lost close this season while Coastal Carolina has lost big in all 6 of its games. The Roadrunners also stop the run at a high level, swarming ball-carriers and getting knock-back at the line of scrimmage. They don’t run it with any consistency, instead relying on quarterback Owen McCown, who ranks 18th nationally in EPA. All signs point to UTSA in this one.
PICK: UTSA -8.5 (-105 via Caesars)
Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (Dec. 23)
Both teams will see backup quarterbacks take the field as both have seen their starters enter the transfer portal. Fresno State has lost 3 of 4. Northern Illinois has won 3 of its last 4. The absences on the Fresno State side are so significant that even though my numbers lean toward the Bulldogs as a 3-point dog, I will play the favorite.
PICK: Northern Illinois -2.5 (-122 via FanDuel)
Hawaii Bowl: South Florida vs. San Jose State (Dec. 24)
South Florida has to make a significant trip to get to this game. That is probably worth considering. SJSU will have the best player on the field if Nick Nash plays and whether it’s Byrum Brown or backup Bryce Archie, USF will probably have spotty quarterback play. South Florida has struggled all year to slow opposing pass games (84th in EPA per dropback faced) and San Jose State wants to throw the ball all over the yard. Nash — who led the FBS in catches, yards, and touchdowns — had a legitimate case to win the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s best pass-catcher. I don’t see how South Florida keeps him or the rest of the aerial attack in front of it.
PICK: San Jose State -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Sports Bowl: Pitt vs. Toledo (Dec. 26)
The time off was crucial for Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein, who powered a 7-0 start but was injured in 3 different games over the final month of the season. He left the Louisville game with an air cast on his leg and watched the remainder of the regular-season finale on crutches. Pitt’s backup quarterback has left for the transfer portal, leaving a walk-on to either start in Holstein’s place or back him up. Coach Pat Narduzzi thinks Holstein will play. I was not a believer in the Panthers when they were unbeaten, and I think Toledo’s defense can turn this into a tight contest. The uncertainty surrounding Pitt’s quarterback situation creates an interesting buy opportunity.
PICK: Toledo +7.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State (Dec. 26)
I think Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens have a field day against this ultra-bad Rutgers run defense. The Scarlet Knights are 130th out of 134 FBS teams in EPA per run faced. They don’t generate havoc or stuff plays, and they don’t win on early downs. Kansas State should be able to do whatever it wants to do offensively. Of course, Giddens might not play after declaring for the NFL Draft. I quite like Giddens’ backup, Dylan Edwards, and it might not be the worst thing to let him get revved up against this kind of defense to see if he can be the guy in 2025.
PICK: Kansas State -6.5 (-118 via FanDuel)
68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (Dec. 26)
Bowling Green has an outstanding defense while Arkansas State has been treading water on that side of the football all season. The matchup nightmare here is Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who has 1,342 receiving yards on the season and is within striking distance of the FBS single-season record for a tight end. Arkansas State ranks 118th nationally in passing success rate allowed and has given up some big games to tight ends throughout the year.
PICK: Bowling Green -6.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Navy (Dec. 27)
Oklahoma was devastated by injuries to its wide receiver room during the regular season. Since, starting quarterback Jackson Arnold has hit the transfer portal alongside starting tight end Bauer Sharp. This was a difficult season for Oklahoma and I wonder if everyone is just ready to turn the page. I’m also not sure what we’ll get from Michael Hawkins Jr., who was benched after a disastrous day against South Carolina. He posted a 0.1 QBR in that game and we’ve seen him throw just 5 passes since. Last we saw Navy, it was pouncing on Army and spoiling the Black Knights’ bid for a program-record 12th win. Blake Horvath ran for 204 yards in the win over Army and he’ll seriously stress Oklahoma’s run defense.
PICK: Navy +7.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt (Dec. 27)
The Commodores are 8-4 against the spread this season, including 7-2 as an underdog. The 2 ATS losses came during the 3-game outright losing streak to close the season, but they were also against 1 Playoff team and another team that probably should have been in the Playoff. As Vanderbilt ran out of steam to close out the year, quarterback Diego Pavia played hurt. With almost a month between the last regular-season game and the bowl game, the Dores should be plenty fresh. With a couple of key departures to the transfer portal already from Georgia Tech’s offense, Vanderbilt as a dog is once again the play for me.
PICK: Vanderbilt +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas (Dec. 27)
The Attrition Bowl, as it shall henceforth be known, is impossible to pick. Texas Tech will be without both of its coordinators and its starting quarterback. Arkansas is among the FBS leaders in portal entries and is down to 6 scholarship offensive linemen who are expected to be available for the game. The offense will look vastly different, with 3 of the 4 pass-catchers with at least 20 receptions this season expected to miss the game either due to opt-out or portal entry. That includes top receiver Andrew Armstrong. We still don’t know if stud Tech tailback Tahj Brooks plans to play in the game. If he doesn’t, I think you have to back the Razorbacks.
PICK: Arkansas -1 (-105 via BetMGM)
Holiday Bowl: No. 21 Syracuse vs. Washington State (Dec. 27)
Washington State and Syracuse both have top-20 marks in opponent-adjusted EPA per play this season. With Washington State quarterback John Mateer (seventh in EPA) and Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord (second in EPA), the potential for a high-flying, run-it-up game was there.
But Mateer has opted for the transfer portal, a likely eventuality after Wazzu offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle left to take the Oklahoma job.
Washington State’s defense was poor this season, and it has already lost a starting cornerback, a starting defensive tackle, and its starting running back to the transfer portal. Syracuse coach Fran Brown doesn’t expect any opt-outs from his team, and the portal has thus far been kind. The Orange closed out their season with 3 consecutive wins and a program-defining victory over Miami. One side is trending up. One is not. Bettors who jumped on the early number (around 6) stand to benefit from the Mateer portal entry, but I still think Syracuse is the play.
PICK: Syracuse -10.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs. Texas A&M (Dec. 27)
Both of these programs have seen high-profile quarterbacks hit the transfer portal, but neither player was starting by season’s end anyway. Texas A&M has been hit particularly hard by the transfer portal, thinning out a roster that was already a little banged up to begin with. This comes down to the quarterback you trust more. A&M’s Marcel Reed has struggled to move the ball consistently through the air. USC’s Jayden Maiava is a gunslinger, but he can pose problems when he’s clicking. Texas A&M leaned on its defensive ability to create havoc and win on the edges, but those edges won’t be playing in the game. USC will be shorthanded at tailback, but I think Lincoln Riley has a plan to create some explosives through the air against a secondary that will give them up.
PICK: USC +3.5 (-104 via FanDuel)
Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. North Carolina (Dec. 28)
North Carolina is going through a period of significant change and might be without its best player. Tailback Omarion Hampton is heading to the NFL, but it’s not presently clear if he plans to play in the bowl game. If he sits, UNC’s absences become an even bigger storyline. UConn, meanwhile, has mostly staved off the portal and should enter into this matchup with plenty of motivation. The Huskies opened the year 1-2 but closed the regular season with wins in 7 of their final 9 games. Three of the 4 losses came by 7 points or less (all against ACC schools). The Huskies have a more-than-capable defense and several quality options at tailback.
PICK: UConn +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Nebraska (Dec. 28)
Nebraska will be playing in its first bowl game since the 2016 season. But the Huskers have lost several key pieces of the defense to the transfer portal and saw defensive coordinator Tony White leave for Florida State. Boston College sparked a 3-1 close to the season with its quarterback move to Grayson James.
PICK: Boston College +2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana vs. TCU (Dec. 28)
TCU has found itself in quite a few shootouts this season and I think this will be another one. The defense ranks 98th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. But the Horned Frogs closed the year on a high note thanks to an offense that found its groove. Louisiana’s defense has struggled all the same, and that came to a head in the Sun Belt title game when Marshall rolled to a 31-3 win while the Ragin’ Cajuns played without their starting ...
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