In the wake of the Cold War, as globalisation gathered speed, Thomas Friedman observed that no two countries with a McDonald’s franchise had ever gone to war with each other. This led him to what he called the Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention: when a country reaches a certain level of economic development – one where the middle class is big enough to support a McDonald’s – its people lose interest in fighting wars. The key to peace, the logic went, may well lie in economic development and interconnectedness. It was not long before Russia disproved Friedman’s theory – first with its 2008 invasion of Georgia, and again with its 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Now, Russia has launched an
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