The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said nuclear powers including the United States and Russia -- which account for around 90 percent of the world’s stockpile -- had spent time last year “upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions”.
But SIPRI warned that the trend was likely to be reversed in the coming years.
This was especially the case with China, which SIPRI said had about 600 nuclear warheads and had added 100 new warheads in 2023 and 2024.
While that would still be well short of Russian and US arsenals it would make China “a much bigger player”, said Smith.
'Extensive programmes'
The institute noted in its report that both Russia and the United States had “extensive programmes under way to modernise and replace their nuclear warheads”.
Similarly, while France’s arsenal was believed to have remained steady at around 290, “its nuclear modernisation programme progressed during 2024”.
India had a “growing stockpile” of about 180 nuclear weapons at the start of 2025, the institute said, while Pakistan’s arsenal remained steady at about 170 warheads.
SIPRI also noted that North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme remained “central to its national security strategy”, estimating that it had around 50 warheads and was believed to possess “enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads”.
Smith stressed that the looming nuclear arms race would not just be about “the numbers of warheads”.
He added that it would be both in “outer space and in cyberspace” as the software directing and guiding nuclear weapons would be an area of competition.
“The next step would be moving towards full automation. That is a step that must never be taken,“ Smith said.
“If our prospects of being free of the danger of nuclear war were to be left in the hands of an artificial intelligence, I think that then we would be close to the doomsday scenarios.”
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