MUFG: We expect limited USD upside as tariff de-escalation faces structural hurdles ...Middle East

Key Points:

JPY Outlook Improving:Despite near-term underperformance, the yen is structurally supported by rising JGB yields (30Y at 25-year high near 3%) and reduced incentives to hedge USD exposure.

Policy Credibility in Question:Given the unpredictability of President Trump’s trade policy approach, investors are likely to remain cautious in interpreting any deal headlines.

While trade optimism has offered a short-term lift to the USD, MUFG sees the scope for further gains as limited, with investor skepticism, structural yen support, and policy uncertainty capping broader dollar upside.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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